For the umpteenth time, I read an article that marvels at how the polls show that Hillary Clinton is viewed as dishonest and untrustworthy by more than half of voters while these same voters have her leading her potential Republican rivals for the presidency. It's really not anything to marvel at, however; all one needs to do is understand what the polls mean.
First of all, the single most important point about these polls is that most of the voters have no idea who the Republican candidates are. I don't mean that the average voter does not understand Marco Rubio's economic plan or Scott Walker's position on federally funded early childhood education. I mean that the majority of voters could not identify either Scott Walker or Marco Rubio if you showed them a picture of both. The same is true of nearly every other Republican in the race. Jeb Bush has higher name recognition than the others, but one has to wonder how many of the people answering the questions are actually talking about George Bush. The truth about the polls is that an enormous chunk of voters are actually choosing between Hillary Clinton and some unknown Republican.
Second, there is also an enormous group in the electorate who know nothing about Hillary's problems with her email, the Clinton Foundation, her selling influence while at the State Department, and all the other things that have come out this year. Many of these people just remember Hillary as Bill's wife who was then a senator and secretary of state. That means that many of those voting for Hillary are actually voting for a different Hillary than the current version.
Third, there has been a clear trend line in the polls. When the 2016 questions began to be asked by pollsters, Hillary had high favorability ratings in the low 60s and led all potential GOP nominees (even more unknown then) by 15 to 20 points. Hillary was also viewed by the public as honest and trustworthy. As Hillary's problems have mounted, her favorability ratings have fallen dramatically. In many polls she is now view unfavorably by more than the number who give her positive ratings. She is also now viewed as untrustworthy by a majority. Her leads over the GOP candidate field is now down to 3 or 4 % in most polls (although there are a few which show some Republican rivals ahead of her.) For Hillary, this is an ominous trend. Remember, there is an enormous portion of the electorate which has paid no attention whatsoever to the entire Clinton mess. Those who have heard the news stories, however, have moved decisively away from Clinton and her scandals.
Over the next year, there will be thousands of more stories about the candidates. More and more, the word will get out. By June of 2016, there will still be a huge part of the electorate that has yet to focus on the Hillary story, but that group will be substantially smaller than it is now. Also, by 2016, Republican candidates will have had a year to educate the public about who they are and what they want to achieve. There is no way of knowing what will happen in the next year; it will be driven by events. One thing is certain, however, and that is that if the scandals of the Clintons continue to swirl through the media, Hillary's numbers will not go up, only down.
First of all, the single most important point about these polls is that most of the voters have no idea who the Republican candidates are. I don't mean that the average voter does not understand Marco Rubio's economic plan or Scott Walker's position on federally funded early childhood education. I mean that the majority of voters could not identify either Scott Walker or Marco Rubio if you showed them a picture of both. The same is true of nearly every other Republican in the race. Jeb Bush has higher name recognition than the others, but one has to wonder how many of the people answering the questions are actually talking about George Bush. The truth about the polls is that an enormous chunk of voters are actually choosing between Hillary Clinton and some unknown Republican.
Second, there is also an enormous group in the electorate who know nothing about Hillary's problems with her email, the Clinton Foundation, her selling influence while at the State Department, and all the other things that have come out this year. Many of these people just remember Hillary as Bill's wife who was then a senator and secretary of state. That means that many of those voting for Hillary are actually voting for a different Hillary than the current version.
Third, there has been a clear trend line in the polls. When the 2016 questions began to be asked by pollsters, Hillary had high favorability ratings in the low 60s and led all potential GOP nominees (even more unknown then) by 15 to 20 points. Hillary was also viewed by the public as honest and trustworthy. As Hillary's problems have mounted, her favorability ratings have fallen dramatically. In many polls she is now view unfavorably by more than the number who give her positive ratings. She is also now viewed as untrustworthy by a majority. Her leads over the GOP candidate field is now down to 3 or 4 % in most polls (although there are a few which show some Republican rivals ahead of her.) For Hillary, this is an ominous trend. Remember, there is an enormous portion of the electorate which has paid no attention whatsoever to the entire Clinton mess. Those who have heard the news stories, however, have moved decisively away from Clinton and her scandals.
Over the next year, there will be thousands of more stories about the candidates. More and more, the word will get out. By June of 2016, there will still be a huge part of the electorate that has yet to focus on the Hillary story, but that group will be substantially smaller than it is now. Also, by 2016, Republican candidates will have had a year to educate the public about who they are and what they want to achieve. There is no way of knowing what will happen in the next year; it will be driven by events. One thing is certain, however, and that is that if the scandals of the Clintons continue to swirl through the media, Hillary's numbers will not go up, only down.
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