This morning brought the employment report for April. According to the government statistics, the economy created over 200,000 jobs in April. That makes the third month out of four in 2015 to achieve that level of employment growth according to these statistics (last month the number was closer to 100,000.) The problem is that something is wrong with the numbers. Based upon the latest information, it seems very likely that the American economy contracted during the first quarter. The first GDP estimate was for 0.2% growth, but the figures issued since then portend a final number in the 0.5% contraction area. The simple truth is that the economy does not contract at the same time that it produces job growth. Something is wrong. Either the jobs numbers are wrong or the GDP data is off (or both).
Most likely, it is the job growth that is off. During the last year, the GDP figures have ranged between almost 5% growth to a contraction. In all that time, the growth of employment according to government statistics has been in the 200,000 plus jobs created range with the exception of just one month. The GDP cannot rise rapidly during a quarter and create just the same number of jobs as when the economy contracts. Since nearly all the other data support the GDP figures regarding the rate of growth, something is very wrong with the employment growth figures.
In 2012, we heard of results being "created" by government workers who had not gotten all the needed data from their survey work. These created results formed the base of the employment figures. Is it possible that the phony employment numbers have actually spread through the entire report? That sounds like a ridiculous conspiracy theory. Nevertheless, I cannot think of any other explanation for the total disconnect between the growth of the economy and the growth of employment.
This needs to be investigated and the sooner, the better.
Most likely, it is the job growth that is off. During the last year, the GDP figures have ranged between almost 5% growth to a contraction. In all that time, the growth of employment according to government statistics has been in the 200,000 plus jobs created range with the exception of just one month. The GDP cannot rise rapidly during a quarter and create just the same number of jobs as when the economy contracts. Since nearly all the other data support the GDP figures regarding the rate of growth, something is very wrong with the employment growth figures.
In 2012, we heard of results being "created" by government workers who had not gotten all the needed data from their survey work. These created results formed the base of the employment figures. Is it possible that the phony employment numbers have actually spread through the entire report? That sounds like a ridiculous conspiracy theory. Nevertheless, I cannot think of any other explanation for the total disconnect between the growth of the economy and the growth of employment.
This needs to be investigated and the sooner, the better.
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