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Saturday, November 27, 2010

Armanino -- Short term buying opportunity?

I have been recommending the purchase of Armanino Foods of Distinction (symbol AMNF on the pink sheets) for seven months on this blog. During that time, Armanino has risen from 48 cents to 70 cents, an increase of 46%, and it has paid a dividend at the rate of about 7% on the original investment to boot. Nevertheless, I believe that there is a short term buying opportunity in the stock. Some time in the next week or so (most likely on December 1) Armanino should announce its dividend for the current quarter. If the past is any guide, this announcement should increase the current current quarterly dividend by a substantial amount. There may also be another special dividend paid this quarter, although that seems less certain to me. Should either of these events happen, I expect the stock to react with yet another rise. Indeed, if the company includes some positive indication in the dividend announcement with regard to the sales and/or earning for the current quarter, the rise could be large. Depending on the actual numbers announced, the stock could push right past the 80 cent mark and keep going a bit more towards the end of the year.

Obviously, there is no guarantee that the dividend will be increased, but it has been at this time of year in the past that the board of directors has chosen to act on this front. Further, barring unforeseen difficulties, Armanino seems on track to earn about 9 cents per share over the next year, making the current Price/earnings multiple less than 8 at the current price of 70 cents. My target for the next 18 months remains $1.30, so even if the dividend is not increased at this point, a purchase at current prices still makes sense.

Armanino is one of those jewels which have not yet been discovered by the market. At some point, more folks will wake up to this stock which provides great current income while maintaining a large upside potential.
This week, however, may well be the last time when you can still buy the stock in the range of 68-72 cents.

Disclosure: I remain long Armanino. It is one of the largest holdings in the accounts I manage.

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