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Friday, November 26, 2010

The Euro -- will it fade away?

One of the biggest developments in the last twenty five years in the world economy has been the development of the euro as the common currency for most of Europe. Now, that currency may not be around much longer. Conventional wisdom is that the Europeans will do whatever is necessary to keep the euro, but that is a rather simplistic view. How much longer can Germans be expected to pay to bail out less wealthy and less successful countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain when the benefit is the maintenance of a common currency? How much longer can the folks in Greece, Ireland and the others be expected to endure harsh austerity when the benefit is mainenance of the euro? After all, if Ireland had been able to devalue its own national currency instead of being stuck with the euro, the Irish might now be able to pay off a devalued debt burden with taxes resulting from the increase exports selling due to the new cheaper pricing. the same is true in all the other debtor countries. On the other hand, the Germans might be able to use their more powerful currency to buy Irish assets and the like and thereby to increase the wealth of Germany. Clearly, there would be a whole host of winners and losers. Irish bondholders would suffer major losses from a devaluation, but the system would more quickly be restored to equilibrium meaning less damage on the whole. ON the other hand, the current system of bailouts really just transfers the pressures from country to country while building up to the ultimate explosion. Hopefully, there will be a way to release pressure before there is an insurrection in many parts of europe.

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