Both the Assad regime and the rebel forces are claiming that their opponent in the Syrian war used chemical weapons in an attack yesterday. So far, there is no confirmation that such weapons were used. It seems more likely that this is just an exchange of false charges than reality. Nevertheless, if one understands the standard operating procedures of the Assad regime, this is a terrible omen.
The first charges regarding the use of chemical weapons were made by Assad forces who claimed that the "terrorists" (which is what the Assad forces call the rebels) hit a village near Aleppo with missiles that had chemical warheads. Let's just stop here. The rebels do not have missiles; they are poorly armed. Also, the rebels do not have chemical weapons; the only place they could have obtained them would be from the bases of the Assad forces. Taken together, this means that it is very unlikely that the rebels used chemical weapons. I must add, however, that it is not impossible, just very unlikely.
After the charges came from the Assad camp, the rebels said that government forces were the ones who had used chemical weapons. So far there are no pictures or first hand reports of the results of the supposed chemical attack. In the past, the rebels have been good at getting the news out, and a chemical attack by Assad forces would be big, big news. I have to conclude that the likelihood that Assad forces actually used chemical weapons is low.
The next even to occur was a condemnation by the Russians of the use of chemical weapons by the rebels. This proves nothing since the Russians are not slaves to the truth.
So what is really going on and why do I say that this is a bad omen? The Assad forces are telling the world that the rebels have already used chemical weapons. Assad is getting his Russian allies to corroborate this account. What this may mean is that Assad is planning to launch a chemical attack "in response" to the rebel first strike with chemicals. The next week or so may see commencement of slaughter of Syrian civilians on a scale that makes the 75,000 people already killed look like nothing more than a rounding error.
I find it hard to believe that the Syrians would start a chemical strike with president Obama in the Middle East. There is no way Obama could ignore the use of such weapons were he in a neighboring country; at least that is how it seems. Were Assad to generate an American attack on Syrian chemical facilities, the war could spread across the region or, if Obama allows the military to follow through, the Syrian fighting could finally be over.
The first charges regarding the use of chemical weapons were made by Assad forces who claimed that the "terrorists" (which is what the Assad forces call the rebels) hit a village near Aleppo with missiles that had chemical warheads. Let's just stop here. The rebels do not have missiles; they are poorly armed. Also, the rebels do not have chemical weapons; the only place they could have obtained them would be from the bases of the Assad forces. Taken together, this means that it is very unlikely that the rebels used chemical weapons. I must add, however, that it is not impossible, just very unlikely.
After the charges came from the Assad camp, the rebels said that government forces were the ones who had used chemical weapons. So far there are no pictures or first hand reports of the results of the supposed chemical attack. In the past, the rebels have been good at getting the news out, and a chemical attack by Assad forces would be big, big news. I have to conclude that the likelihood that Assad forces actually used chemical weapons is low.
The next even to occur was a condemnation by the Russians of the use of chemical weapons by the rebels. This proves nothing since the Russians are not slaves to the truth.
So what is really going on and why do I say that this is a bad omen? The Assad forces are telling the world that the rebels have already used chemical weapons. Assad is getting his Russian allies to corroborate this account. What this may mean is that Assad is planning to launch a chemical attack "in response" to the rebel first strike with chemicals. The next week or so may see commencement of slaughter of Syrian civilians on a scale that makes the 75,000 people already killed look like nothing more than a rounding error.
I find it hard to believe that the Syrians would start a chemical strike with president Obama in the Middle East. There is no way Obama could ignore the use of such weapons were he in a neighboring country; at least that is how it seems. Were Assad to generate an American attack on Syrian chemical facilities, the war could spread across the region or, if Obama allows the military to follow through, the Syrian fighting could finally be over.
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