Amir Taheri has a column in today's NY Post that discusses unfolding events in Lebanon. It ought to be a wake up call for president Obama. Most likely, the White House staffers who read the Post were focused on Kim Kardashian's new dress or some item on Page Six. Lebanon presents a conundrum that, for the moment, can still be ignored.
In about three months, there are supposed to elections in Lebanon. Last time, Iranian support was able to gain control of the Lebanese government for the mullahs in Teheran. The foremost instrument of Iranian control was Hezbollah, the Shiite terror group that is funded, armed and directed by Iran. Iran, however, needed more to gain control, so it made deals with a Maronite Christian party led by General Aoun as well as a group of Sunni politicians. But that was years ago, and since then the war in Syria has erupted with fighting raging between the Sunnis and the Shiites. The Sunnis in Lebanon cannot side with the Iranian supported Assad in Syria without alienating essentially all of their Sunni followers. After all, no one likes watching his co-religionists being slaughtered by the Assad forces. For its part, Hezbollah has been sending forces to fight with Assad in Syria. More than 50 Hezbollah fighters have died this year alone in Syria. The Sunnis in Lebanon have also been forming a militia to go to Syria to fight with the rebels against Assad. It will not take much for that fighting to spread across the border into Lebanon.
Things are tense in Lebanon, but they are not yet out of control. A rational voice combined with a measure of force could keep the situation from boiling over. That is where the USA comes in. We do not need to send troops; right now vocal support ought to suffice to keep the peace. Silence, however, will let things just spin out of control. Obama ought to remember that in Syria, he had the opportunity to get involved early before all the killing erupted. Had he chosen engagement rather than hiding from events, 75,000 more Syrians might be alive today.
Sadly, we now have a self important moron as Secretary of State and a president who always opts to avoid problems rather that to deal with them. Avoidance may work as a temporary political strategy. It is a total failure in international relations. Let's hope that for once Obama surprises us on the good side.
In about three months, there are supposed to elections in Lebanon. Last time, Iranian support was able to gain control of the Lebanese government for the mullahs in Teheran. The foremost instrument of Iranian control was Hezbollah, the Shiite terror group that is funded, armed and directed by Iran. Iran, however, needed more to gain control, so it made deals with a Maronite Christian party led by General Aoun as well as a group of Sunni politicians. But that was years ago, and since then the war in Syria has erupted with fighting raging between the Sunnis and the Shiites. The Sunnis in Lebanon cannot side with the Iranian supported Assad in Syria without alienating essentially all of their Sunni followers. After all, no one likes watching his co-religionists being slaughtered by the Assad forces. For its part, Hezbollah has been sending forces to fight with Assad in Syria. More than 50 Hezbollah fighters have died this year alone in Syria. The Sunnis in Lebanon have also been forming a militia to go to Syria to fight with the rebels against Assad. It will not take much for that fighting to spread across the border into Lebanon.
Things are tense in Lebanon, but they are not yet out of control. A rational voice combined with a measure of force could keep the situation from boiling over. That is where the USA comes in. We do not need to send troops; right now vocal support ought to suffice to keep the peace. Silence, however, will let things just spin out of control. Obama ought to remember that in Syria, he had the opportunity to get involved early before all the killing erupted. Had he chosen engagement rather than hiding from events, 75,000 more Syrians might be alive today.
Sadly, we now have a self important moron as Secretary of State and a president who always opts to avoid problems rather that to deal with them. Avoidance may work as a temporary political strategy. It is a total failure in international relations. Let's hope that for once Obama surprises us on the good side.
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