For the months after last November's elections, the mainstream media was filled with reports of the impending demise of the Republican party. The GOP was losing Hispanics and other minorities and demography would kill the party before long -- or so we were told repeatedly by these gurus of the media. It seemed like quite a major prediction based upon the narrow re-election win by president Obama which was not even sufficient to deliver control of Congress to the Democrats. The media bought into this narrative completely nevertheless.
Well now it is four months later. In the mainstream media, the story has not changed, but in the real world, much has been modified. Things are appearing more and more frequently that bode ill for the future of the Democrats. Indeed, the goal of the Obama White House of winning the House in 2014 may soon change into trying to retain the Senate in that year. Here's why:
1) The biggest obstacle to success by the Democrats is Obamacare. This program was the main reason for the GOP victory in 2010, and it seems likely to have an even bigger impact moving forward. In January of 2014 the vast majority of the law will finally take effect. What that will mean is that millions of Americans will lose their healthcare at that time. Businesses that have just over the minimum number of employees to require coverage will lay off a few people to get back under the minimum. Businesses that have part time employees will cut back the hours of those people in order to keep them from earning healthcare. Businesses that are operating on a very small profit margin will end healthcare coverage and instead will pay the fine/tax levied by the Obamacare law. If you ran a business and had a choice between paying around $800 per employee as a fine/tax or paying around $3000 per employee for health insurance, which would you choose? Folks who live in states that do not already have community rating will see enormous increases in their insurance premiums. Community rating is the name for policies which do not allow insurers to determine whether or not to sell insurance based upon the applicant's medical history. Millions of people will see mind-blowing increases in their premiums. So there will be an avalanche of lost jobs, work cutbacks, lost insurance and huge premium increases.
One thing is certain: no matter how the media tries to spin the story, everyone will realize that it is the Democrats who brought us Obamacare. We have all just gone through four years during which the Republicans have fought against and the Democrats have fought for Obamacare. No amount of spin, lies or media stories can erase that truth. Further, many people remember Obama repeatedly telling us all how Obamacare would cut all insurance premiums by 2500 bucks. And who could forget "If you like your doctor and your plan, you can keep them!"
On top of all of this, we will also see in 2014 the disaster of the Obamacare exchanges. For a majority of people in the USA, these exchanges will be run by the federal government. In less than half of the states, the state governments will be in charge. Almost all of the states with state run exchanges are governed by Democrats, so the exchanges will be another aspect of Obamacare that will be hung around the necks of the president's party. This is important, since the exchanges are likely to fail.
When I say that the exchanges will fail, I do not mean that they will close their doors. The exchanges will sell insurance policies, but these policies will be extremely costly. Under Obamacare, folks in states with federal exchanges are not eligible for federal subsidies in connection with insurance purchases. Much of 2014 will be taken up with various federal courts ruling on whether or not such subsidies may be offered. By election day in 2014, there will likely have been decisions by Federal Courts of Appeals in a few circuits on this point. The decision by the Supreme Court will not come until the following year most likely. In at least some parts of the country, there will be no subsidies.
By election day of 2014, Obamacare will be a huge hot mess. There will be anger across America at just how badly Obamacare screwed up our medical system. That anger will be expressed at the polls.
2) The environmental movement may also tear the Democrats apart. Look, for example, at the Keystone Pipeline decision. Allowing the pipeline will create tens of thousands of jobs and will secure a large Canadian oil source for the United States. Environmentalist opponents of Keystone, however, argue that building the pipeline will allow the production of oil that will add to pollution and global warming. Of course, the problem is that if the USA does not build the pipeline south, then there will be a pipeline built west so that the fuel can be exported by Canada to China. There will be no pollution reduction and no help regarding global warming. Even so, environmentalists are mobilizing to try to stop Keystone. Unions and environmentalists will surely clash. Even more and less extreme environmentalists will clash. This will rend the Democrats.
3) Gun control is another issue that will split the Democrats. Just look at the reaction to the withdrawal of the assault weapons ban from the senate bill. Harry Reid was treated to attacks that Democrats usually reserve for Republicans when he dropped the assault weapons ban from the bill. This will not be the end; the Democrats are going to fight among themselves on this issue for months.
There are other issues which are likely to cause the Democrats to fracture. Some of this will surely be cured as election day comes closer, but most of it will not. Further, there is over a year and a half until the 2014 election, and much can and will happen to alter the outcome. My point is not to guarantee that the Democrats will be routed in the next election. Rather, my point is that at the moment they are going down the road to that outcome.
Well now it is four months later. In the mainstream media, the story has not changed, but in the real world, much has been modified. Things are appearing more and more frequently that bode ill for the future of the Democrats. Indeed, the goal of the Obama White House of winning the House in 2014 may soon change into trying to retain the Senate in that year. Here's why:
1) The biggest obstacle to success by the Democrats is Obamacare. This program was the main reason for the GOP victory in 2010, and it seems likely to have an even bigger impact moving forward. In January of 2014 the vast majority of the law will finally take effect. What that will mean is that millions of Americans will lose their healthcare at that time. Businesses that have just over the minimum number of employees to require coverage will lay off a few people to get back under the minimum. Businesses that have part time employees will cut back the hours of those people in order to keep them from earning healthcare. Businesses that are operating on a very small profit margin will end healthcare coverage and instead will pay the fine/tax levied by the Obamacare law. If you ran a business and had a choice between paying around $800 per employee as a fine/tax or paying around $3000 per employee for health insurance, which would you choose? Folks who live in states that do not already have community rating will see enormous increases in their insurance premiums. Community rating is the name for policies which do not allow insurers to determine whether or not to sell insurance based upon the applicant's medical history. Millions of people will see mind-blowing increases in their premiums. So there will be an avalanche of lost jobs, work cutbacks, lost insurance and huge premium increases.
One thing is certain: no matter how the media tries to spin the story, everyone will realize that it is the Democrats who brought us Obamacare. We have all just gone through four years during which the Republicans have fought against and the Democrats have fought for Obamacare. No amount of spin, lies or media stories can erase that truth. Further, many people remember Obama repeatedly telling us all how Obamacare would cut all insurance premiums by 2500 bucks. And who could forget "If you like your doctor and your plan, you can keep them!"
On top of all of this, we will also see in 2014 the disaster of the Obamacare exchanges. For a majority of people in the USA, these exchanges will be run by the federal government. In less than half of the states, the state governments will be in charge. Almost all of the states with state run exchanges are governed by Democrats, so the exchanges will be another aspect of Obamacare that will be hung around the necks of the president's party. This is important, since the exchanges are likely to fail.
When I say that the exchanges will fail, I do not mean that they will close their doors. The exchanges will sell insurance policies, but these policies will be extremely costly. Under Obamacare, folks in states with federal exchanges are not eligible for federal subsidies in connection with insurance purchases. Much of 2014 will be taken up with various federal courts ruling on whether or not such subsidies may be offered. By election day in 2014, there will likely have been decisions by Federal Courts of Appeals in a few circuits on this point. The decision by the Supreme Court will not come until the following year most likely. In at least some parts of the country, there will be no subsidies.
By election day of 2014, Obamacare will be a huge hot mess. There will be anger across America at just how badly Obamacare screwed up our medical system. That anger will be expressed at the polls.
2) The environmental movement may also tear the Democrats apart. Look, for example, at the Keystone Pipeline decision. Allowing the pipeline will create tens of thousands of jobs and will secure a large Canadian oil source for the United States. Environmentalist opponents of Keystone, however, argue that building the pipeline will allow the production of oil that will add to pollution and global warming. Of course, the problem is that if the USA does not build the pipeline south, then there will be a pipeline built west so that the fuel can be exported by Canada to China. There will be no pollution reduction and no help regarding global warming. Even so, environmentalists are mobilizing to try to stop Keystone. Unions and environmentalists will surely clash. Even more and less extreme environmentalists will clash. This will rend the Democrats.
3) Gun control is another issue that will split the Democrats. Just look at the reaction to the withdrawal of the assault weapons ban from the senate bill. Harry Reid was treated to attacks that Democrats usually reserve for Republicans when he dropped the assault weapons ban from the bill. This will not be the end; the Democrats are going to fight among themselves on this issue for months.
There are other issues which are likely to cause the Democrats to fracture. Some of this will surely be cured as election day comes closer, but most of it will not. Further, there is over a year and a half until the 2014 election, and much can and will happen to alter the outcome. My point is not to guarantee that the Democrats will be routed in the next election. Rather, my point is that at the moment they are going down the road to that outcome.
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