It's looking more and more like the race this fall will be Clinton vs. Trump. Who would win that battle? There are many pundits and politicians that think that Clinton will win in a romp. Certainly, most polls show her ahead, although there are some in which Trump triumphs. The talking heads on TV tell us that in the fall campaign the entire Clinton machine will be out slamming Trump and that he will not be able to survive the onslaught. I don't buy that. Think about it. Clinton has had trouble beating Bernie Sanders. Why is that? One big reason is that most people think she is a liar who cares only for herself. Even a huge chunk of the Democrats believe that and vast majorities of Republicans and Independents agree. During the campaign, however, Bernie Sanders has basically said nothing at all about Hillary's personal shortcomings. He attacked her for being a Wall Street favorite, but that's not the same as an attack for being dishonest, greedy and untrustworthy. Bernie even gave Hillary a pass for her emails. On the other hand, Trump is being attacked by his fellow Republicans as roughly the anti-Christ. There's very little that hasn't been thrown at the Donald. Now, there's no question that some of those attacks have hurt Trump, but they've already hit him. On the other side, Hillary has yet to get smashed with her own personal shortcomings by political opponents. Indeed, Hillary is tailor made to be Trump's opponent. Rather than pondering if Trump can survive the Clinton attacks, one might do better considering if Hillary can survive the Trump attacks.
Then there's the remarkable lack of personal appeal that Hillary manifests. Where are the people who are passionate about supporting her. Sometimes it seems that even Bill Clinton is only lukewarm in his support. Will the normal Democrat constituencies actually come out to vote? Hillary's campaign will try to energize her voters by emphasizing the need to keep the evil Donald Trump out of office just as Obama used Romney for that purpose. Romney, however, really never took on Obama on those attacks. Romney ran a polite and soft spoken campaign and he got trampled by the Democrats as a result. Trump won't cooperate like Romney did. The Democrats always talk about demographics, but without an appealing person at the top of the ticket, most likely the African American share of the electorate could decline by 2%. Even worse for Hillary, she will never take the percentage of the black vote that Obama got. If Hillary wins 80% of the black vote, that switch in black turnout and voting percentages would give Trump a majority of the popular vote if all the other Obama/Romney numbers stayed the same. Those numbers won't remain the same, however. Trump seems to be drawing large numbers of white Democrat voters to his cause. If he can just increase the Republican majority among white voters by 2.5%, then his easy election is assured.
There will of course be voters who chose Romney last time and who vote for Hillary this time, but that is likely a small group. More likely, there will be voters who chose Romney in 2012 who decide not to vote in 2016.
The point of all this discussion is that it would not be hard for Trump to beat Hillary. Nor would the opposite be unlikely. Right now, either of the two could win. Of course, events could intervene. If Hillary is indicted, she loses. Indeed, she may not even be the nominee once indicted. If a viable third party appears, everything changes, but that does not appear likely. If the economy goes into recession, Trump will win. If there are terror attacks, well, you get the picture.
Then there's the remarkable lack of personal appeal that Hillary manifests. Where are the people who are passionate about supporting her. Sometimes it seems that even Bill Clinton is only lukewarm in his support. Will the normal Democrat constituencies actually come out to vote? Hillary's campaign will try to energize her voters by emphasizing the need to keep the evil Donald Trump out of office just as Obama used Romney for that purpose. Romney, however, really never took on Obama on those attacks. Romney ran a polite and soft spoken campaign and he got trampled by the Democrats as a result. Trump won't cooperate like Romney did. The Democrats always talk about demographics, but without an appealing person at the top of the ticket, most likely the African American share of the electorate could decline by 2%. Even worse for Hillary, she will never take the percentage of the black vote that Obama got. If Hillary wins 80% of the black vote, that switch in black turnout and voting percentages would give Trump a majority of the popular vote if all the other Obama/Romney numbers stayed the same. Those numbers won't remain the same, however. Trump seems to be drawing large numbers of white Democrat voters to his cause. If he can just increase the Republican majority among white voters by 2.5%, then his easy election is assured.
There will of course be voters who chose Romney last time and who vote for Hillary this time, but that is likely a small group. More likely, there will be voters who chose Romney in 2012 who decide not to vote in 2016.
The point of all this discussion is that it would not be hard for Trump to beat Hillary. Nor would the opposite be unlikely. Right now, either of the two could win. Of course, events could intervene. If Hillary is indicted, she loses. Indeed, she may not even be the nominee once indicted. If a viable third party appears, everything changes, but that does not appear likely. If the economy goes into recession, Trump will win. If there are terror attacks, well, you get the picture.
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