Vladimir Putin announced that most of the Russians troops sent to Syria are being withdrawn. Is that good news or bad news?
Let's start by stating the obvious. It may be no news. Until we actually have confirmation that any of the Russian troops have left Syria without being replaced, we have no basis for believing Putin's announcement. After all, in just the last few years Putin has told the world that Russia had no troops in Crimea right before those troops (which didn't exist) took over the region and Russia annexed it. Then Putin told the world that there were no Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Those non-existent troops fought a war against the Ukrainian armed forces ever since then. Putin also told us that Syria had agreed to divest itself of all chemical weapons, but the Assad forces (and ISIS too) have both used chemical weapons since then. Let's just say that Putin's announcement of the withdrawal indicates a possible course of action by Russia.
So if the troops are really going, why is that happening? Putin's goal in entering Syria was to support the Assad regime and to guarantee that Russia kept is naval base at Latakia no matter what happened. The Russian forces smashed the Sunni rebels and also hit ISIS a few times. Russia also got to establish a big new air base in Syria. And, perhaps most important, for the first time since 1973, Russia became a major player in the Middle East. With that accomplished, is Putin just taking his soldiers home. That makes no sense. Having re-entered the region, why would Russia slink out? Having obtained a local air base, why would Putin abandon it now? Having helped Assad, why would Putin leave and seriously weaken the Assad forces' position?
Ralph Peters says in the New York Post that the Russians are leaving because they have realized that Syria is already controlled by Iran and the Russian efforts were only helping the Iranians (who are not friends of the Russians.) Maybe.
It could also be that the Russians are just leaving so that they will not have to participate in the fight against ISIS. Russia has a major problem with Islamic terrorism and Putin knows that problem will be much worse if his troops are attacking the caliphate.
Chaos is the normal state of the Middle East, and Putin's move is certainly chaotic. Maybe Putin is just trying to fit in. It's as good a reason as any.
Let's start by stating the obvious. It may be no news. Until we actually have confirmation that any of the Russian troops have left Syria without being replaced, we have no basis for believing Putin's announcement. After all, in just the last few years Putin has told the world that Russia had no troops in Crimea right before those troops (which didn't exist) took over the region and Russia annexed it. Then Putin told the world that there were no Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Those non-existent troops fought a war against the Ukrainian armed forces ever since then. Putin also told us that Syria had agreed to divest itself of all chemical weapons, but the Assad forces (and ISIS too) have both used chemical weapons since then. Let's just say that Putin's announcement of the withdrawal indicates a possible course of action by Russia.
So if the troops are really going, why is that happening? Putin's goal in entering Syria was to support the Assad regime and to guarantee that Russia kept is naval base at Latakia no matter what happened. The Russian forces smashed the Sunni rebels and also hit ISIS a few times. Russia also got to establish a big new air base in Syria. And, perhaps most important, for the first time since 1973, Russia became a major player in the Middle East. With that accomplished, is Putin just taking his soldiers home. That makes no sense. Having re-entered the region, why would Russia slink out? Having obtained a local air base, why would Putin abandon it now? Having helped Assad, why would Putin leave and seriously weaken the Assad forces' position?
Ralph Peters says in the New York Post that the Russians are leaving because they have realized that Syria is already controlled by Iran and the Russian efforts were only helping the Iranians (who are not friends of the Russians.) Maybe.
It could also be that the Russians are just leaving so that they will not have to participate in the fight against ISIS. Russia has a major problem with Islamic terrorism and Putin knows that problem will be much worse if his troops are attacking the caliphate.
Chaos is the normal state of the Middle East, and Putin's move is certainly chaotic. Maybe Putin is just trying to fit in. It's as good a reason as any.
No comments:
Post a Comment