There's a little discussed news story today that says that says that the Kasich campaign is pulling much of its media budget out of Wisconsin. The largest buy that was cancelled was on local radio shows. So what does that mean? Well, first of all, it means that the Kasich campaign recognizes that it won't win in Wisconsin. Polling has shown a tight race between Trump and Cruz with the Ohio governor in a distant third place. Especially for someone like Kasich who does not have copious amounts of campaign cash, spending in places where he is unlikely to win or get delegates makes no sense.
The more important meaning of Kasich's action, however, is this: we may finally have a state in which there is a true one on one battle between Trump and Cruz. Ted Cruz's big selling point has been his claim that once everyone else got out of the way, he could beat Donald Trump. Let's see if that's true. If Cruz beats Trump by five percent or more, it will go a long way towards establishing that Cruz can really defeat Trump for the nomination. Wisconsin is a state that lines up more for Trump than Cruz. There are a lot of former factory workers who lost their jobs to overseas competition. The state is heavily white. There are relatively few evangelicals. Normally, one would expect Trump to win here. But Wisconsin is also home to a great many voters with Midwest sensibilities. They do not usually take kindly to politicians who are rude, and that may doom Trump. We will get to see if the Trump attack on Heidi Cruz (whose only "crime" is her marriage to Ted) has shifted voters away from Trump and towards Cruz.
Wisconsin is not a small state, but it has been a long time since it occupied such an important place in Republican presidential politics. If Cruz ultimately wins the nomination, Wisconsin could be the place where the shift from Trump really began.
The more important meaning of Kasich's action, however, is this: we may finally have a state in which there is a true one on one battle between Trump and Cruz. Ted Cruz's big selling point has been his claim that once everyone else got out of the way, he could beat Donald Trump. Let's see if that's true. If Cruz beats Trump by five percent or more, it will go a long way towards establishing that Cruz can really defeat Trump for the nomination. Wisconsin is a state that lines up more for Trump than Cruz. There are a lot of former factory workers who lost their jobs to overseas competition. The state is heavily white. There are relatively few evangelicals. Normally, one would expect Trump to win here. But Wisconsin is also home to a great many voters with Midwest sensibilities. They do not usually take kindly to politicians who are rude, and that may doom Trump. We will get to see if the Trump attack on Heidi Cruz (whose only "crime" is her marriage to Ted) has shifted voters away from Trump and towards Cruz.
Wisconsin is not a small state, but it has been a long time since it occupied such an important place in Republican presidential politics. If Cruz ultimately wins the nomination, Wisconsin could be the place where the shift from Trump really began.
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