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Sunday, March 27, 2016

Palmyra Falls To Assad

In Syria, the Assad government forces have retaken the city of Tadmur including the ruins of the ancient city of Palmyra from ISIS.  ISIS had taken control of the city last year.  Let's take a look at what this means.

1.  Tadmur is built around an oasis in the middle of the Syrian desert.  There is not much in the area once one leaves the city.  The main road in the region also goes directly through Tadmur.  This means that control of Tadmur provides control of a large area surrounding the city and also controls all the supply lines dependent on using the main roads.  That being said, it is important to keep in mind that this is one of the least important parts of Syria.

2.  It took Syrian army forces a very long time to finally drive ISIS from this city.  The victory was only achieved with the strong support of Russian air power and Iranian/Hezbollah ground forces.  Assad's allies are taking over for his failing army.

3.  The ruins at Palmyra were some of the world's greatest examples of Roman architecture and urban structure.  While in control of the city, ISIS leveled nearly all of the ruins and sold many small items on the black market to finance their war effort.  The enormity of this crime makes it hard to understand.  Think of Rome being conquered and the conqueror demolishing the Coliseum and the remnants of the Roman forum.  Reports from Tadmur say that the Palmyra ruins have been filled with mines by ISIS; that may destroy anything else that is left.

4.  This is a clear setback for ISIS.  What it shows is that determined opposition to ISIS can defeat the terrorists.  The real battle to determine the future of ISIS is shaping up to start soon, however.  That is the fight for Mosul in Iraq.  If the Iraqi forces can retake Mosul, it will be a body blow to ISIS from which it would be hard to recover.  Mosul is a great many times larger than Palmyra.  Winning this city back would likely push ISIS back from much of its Iraqi territory.  For that victory to take place, however, the Iraqis will need air support from the USA of the sort the Russians gave to the Syrians in Tadmur.  That is something that America has not done until now.  Let's hope that just for once, president Obama actually does the right thing.

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