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Friday, March 4, 2016

What Will Kim Do?

The ruler of North Korea is a lunatic.  Yesterday, Kim Jung Un decided that the country's nuclear weapons should go on alert for launching a pre-emptive strike.  At least that is what was announced.  Will the NK's actually launch such an attack?  I don't think so, but with someone like Kim, you never know.  In the past, the NK's have sunk South Korean navy ships, fired artillery at South Korean towns, and done all sorts of insane things.  Clearly, though, nuclear weapons are different.  If even one were used, the North Koreans could wave goodbye to the world as their country exploded.  But is that enough to stop them?  No one knows.

And if the NK's do attack, what will the target be?  There are two obvious choices, and one that is not so obvious.  The first target on the list is Seoul and its enormous population.  North Korea has the delivery systems needed to hit the South Korean capital, and Seoul is the seat of the NK's biggest enemy.  The second target is Tokyo.  The NK's hate the Japanese for reasons best discussed in connection with events of over 70 years ago during World War II.  While relations between South Korea and Japan have warmed over the years, the NK's have never wavered in their hatred of all things Japanese.  The target that is not so obvious is Honolulu.  We don't know for certain if the NK's have missiles that could hit Hawaii, but they may not be necessary.  After all, the NK's could put a nuke on a small ship and sail it to Hawaii (or California, for that matter.)  The detonation of a nuke does not have to include a missile attack; a bomb in a crate on ship will still kill millions.

The worst part of all this is that there is no way to stop such an attack short of a pre-emptive strike of out own.  I think it is safe to say that president Obama would NEVER order such and attack even if he had a 95% certainty that the NK's were about to launch their own attacks on the USA and our allies.  Obama might send John Kerry to negotiate a deal with the NK's in which they agree not to attack in exchange for some lucrative ransom package.

Let's hope that nothing happens until we get a new president.  Anyone would be better than Obama.

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