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Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Did Something Happen or is it Statistical Noise - 4

We now have results from the Rasmussen daily tracking polls which first led me to question if Obama's numbers were tanking. In today's results, Obama and Romney are tied at 45% while Obama is ahead of Santorum 47 to 42%. These are very significant numbers. For the last three days, Romney has been ahead of Obama, and now they are tied. What is significant, however, is that the results from what clearly was a one day aberration in the numbers is now gone. Even without the lopsided results of that day, it is still a tie between Obama and Romney with 10% undecided. Those are grim numbers for the Obama campaign, especially since undecideds normally break by 3 or 4 to 1 for the challenger. Clearly, we now can be sure that Obama's numbers have tanked nationwide; this was not just a statistical anomaly.

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