Santorum wins in Dixie

The wins by Rick Santorum in Alabama and Mississippi have a number of important consequences.

1) Newt Gingrich is fading away. Newt did not just lose two more states. Newt lost the two remaining primary states where he was best situated to win. Whether or not Gingrich actually drops out of the race now, many more voters will be dropping him. Clearly, Santorum has established himself as the so-called non Romney. Any GOP voter who wants someone other than Romney as the nominee almost has to vote for Santorum if that vote is to count.

2) Rick Santorum had a major victory in a number of respects. He won in the South even though he was facing a regional candidate in Gingrich. He won even though the polls in both states showed him losing. He won because the late deciding voters split for him in both states. Clearly, there was a move towards Santorum even after all the brouhaha about contraception and social issues spewing forth from Obama and the Obamacrats in the last week. Santorum also won big by, in essence, beginning to oust Gingrich from the race so that Rick becomes the only real alternative to Romney.

3) Mitt Romney had a pretty good night as well. He got just under a third of the delegates in the two states. When Hawaii comes in Romney may even have the highest total delegates on the night. Ten days ago no one would have expected Romney to win in either of these states. Then, of course, polls came out that showed Romney either leading or close in both states. At that point, the expectations went up, so tonight's showing is reported as a disappointment rather than as a surprising triumph. Nevertheless, Romney almost held his own with the other two in an area that should be one of his weakest.

The next important primaries are next week in Puerto Rico and Illinois. Puerto Rico is winner take all, so its 23 delegates are a nice prize, good enough that Santorum is going to San Juan tonight for two days of campaigning. Illinois, however, is the big prize. It will be interesting to see if this is the first big state where Romney's money advantage does not pull out the win for him. The latest polls show a 4% lead for Romney, but they are a week old and will be affected by tonight's results. If Santorum can pull out a win in Illinois, he may begin to close the delegate gap with Romney.