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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Super Tuesday

As I write this, Romney has won Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia. Santorum has won Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota. gingrich has won in Georgia. Ron Paul has won nowhere (surprise!). Idaho looks like it is going for Romney. And Ohio? It will likely be a very narrow win for Romney, but we will see. That leaves only Alaska, and we will not get those results until tomorrow. So what are the big takeaways from today's votes?

1) Gingrich should get out of the race. So far, Newt has won Georgia and South Carolina. In other words, Newt has won his home state and the one next door. In most of today's states, Gingrich finished either third or fourth. There is just no way that Gingrich can get the nomination with results like those. But Newt says he is staying in. And here is the strangest thing of all: Newt seems to be most animated by the negative attacks against him by Romney and the Romney super PAC; yet, by staying in the race, Newt most benefits Romney. Newt seems to be a captive to his own emotions rather than thinking about what he would like to achieve for the country.

2) Both Santorum and Romney gave very good speeches tonight. Santorum demonstrated that he clearly is the most genuine person in the field. Romney suddenly had both empathy and a fighting spirit. They both deserve credit for their performance.

3) By winning three states at least, Santorum has given himself a path forward. The odds still favor Romney, but the race is far from over. Indeed, in the next month, Romney does not have any more New England states to carry easily. Instead, there are a bunch of southern and midwestern states that should be fertile ground for Santorum. If Romney can carry the majority of these states, the race will be over. On the other hand, if Santorum can sweep through here, he will be in good shape to win the whole thing.

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