I got asked today by a friend who supports Romney why I had been silent about the GOP primary in Illinois. No, I am not sulking as he claimed. The truth is that last night I was at the graduation ceremony at the Connecticut State Police Academy and I did not get home to watch any of the results or the speeches by the candidates. Nevertheless, I do think that the results merit discussion.
It seems to me that the combination of Puerto Rico and Illinois makes it extremely hard to imagine someone other than Mitt Romney winning the nomination. The only other possibility is Rick Santorum, but he is really up against it at this point. Before discussing Santorum, let me also say that Gingrich and Paul are now clearly irrelevant. They may pick up a delegate or two here or there, but neither man has even the slightest chance of prevailing at the convention. They both have been rejected by the voters.
Santorum still could win if he pulls the rabbit out of the hat. The problem, however, is that we still have California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Rhode Island down the road. These states have 364 delegates and Romney will likely win nearly all of them. The other states which remain include places that Santorum could win (like Texas, North Carolina, Kentucky, Nebraska and Indiana which have about 350 delegate). Most of the other states, however, are proportional rather than winner take all states. Romney will surely get a big chunk of delegates in these states as well. It should be enough to put Mitt over the top. On the other hand, were Santorum to start picking up steam again so that he made big inroads into Romney-friendly states, he would still have a chance, albeit slim.
One thing is certain. Although I prefer Santorum to Romney, that does not mean that Romney would be a bad president or presidential candidate. After all, either one would be much better than Obama.
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