More bad news

I do not usually write about the more arcane economic indicators, but today brings one that I consider worth mentioning only because it is so poor. The New York Federal Reserve Bank published the Empire State Manufacturing Index. In August, it was a negative 5.9 which means that manufacturing in the New York region was declining pretty much across the board. Expectations for the September report were that the number would improve to minus 2.0; that would mean that while manufacturing was still contracting, the rate of contraction was slowing. Instead, the number reported was minus 10.9, a terrible number. Obviously, manufacturing in the New York region is not an indicator for the entire American economy; nevertheless, a number like today's report is a flashing red indicator that screams RECESSION! If this turns out to be a national rather than a regional trend, we are in for some worse times ahead.