Obama's Foreign Disasters

With all the attention on Moslem riots in Cairo, Benghazi and elsewhere these days, there are two very important events in Asia which have not gotten the attention that they deserve. Each is more important for America than the Moslem riots. Each is, unfortunately, a disaster for American foreign policy.

1. The first big event is the decision by the coalition command in Afghanistan to end joint patrols with Afghan forces. This policy was chosen by the American commander as a result of the ongoing attacks by Taliban forces which infiltrate Afghan government police and army groups and then attack Americans or other coalition forces from inside their bases. So far this year, something like 75 Americans have been killed in this way.

The decision sounds like a rational response to an ongoing problem until one thinks about the policy implications of the change. President Obama has announced that American forces will be out of Afghanistan by 2014 and had directed a policy that called for the forces of the Afghan government to be trained so that they could gradually take over responsiblity for security as the coalition forces withdrew. The decision by the American commander has, for the time being, ended the training of the government forces. Simply put, this means that Obama's Afghan strategy has collapsed. Either America will just pull out of Afghanistan and leave chaos and an eventual return of the Taliban, or America will stay in Afghanistan well past the deadline set by Obama. Neither is an acceptable result.

This collapse of Afghan policy has gotten very little coverage in the media. They are in full "protect Obama" mode, so the bad news is basically ignored. Reality, however, does not stop for elections.

2. The second big event in Asia is the ongoing dispute between Japan and China over a nearly uninhabited island group in the East China Sea. Japan has administered the islands since 1895, but China still claims them. Recently, Japan purchased the islands from their former private owner. This has led to mass demonstrations in China, threats of major retaliation against Japan and even talk of war. The latest threats from China center on that country using its ownership of Japanese bonds to damage the Japanese economy, of cutting off the export of rare earth elements to Japan that are needed for all manner of high tech devices, and of cutting off trade between the two countries. Each of these attacks would be a major strike by China against Japan.

This confrontation is an enormous problem for the United States. We have treaty obligations to Japan to defend it against a Chinese attack. That treaty extends to the disputed islands. What that means is that a confrontation between Japan and China could rapidly change into a nuclear confrontation between China and the USA. Further, any Chinese trade war with Japan would likely also grow to include the USA. The disruption to the economy would be enough to guarantee the return of recession and perhaps depression. Of course, the whole process would damage China as well, but the Chinese government (which need not answer to its people) might well take that course anyway.

So far, America's efforts to calm this situation have proven futile. Obama seems to think that ignoring the problem will result in its going away. Again, reality does not stop for elections.

Most of the attention to this dispute has been in the financial press. The main stream media mentions the dispute in passing periodically, but just mostly ignores it. Let's be clear: this dispute could end in nuclear war. It should not and cannot be ignored. Maybe someone ought to tell president Obama.