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Monday, September 10, 2012

Predictably Partisan Polling

Public Policy Polling, or PPP as it is known, provides a great many poll results which are dutifully reported in the media. I have written before about the skewed results that the PPP polls produce. They are palpably prejudiced. Today brings more partisan palaver from PPP. A poll in North Carolina from PPP shows Obama up by 1% over Romney. Just to make sure, I went back and looked at every poll taken in North Carolina since June 1. Of 12 polls whose results were published 3 found Obama ahead, 8 found a Romney lead and 1 showed a tie. All 3 where Obama led and the tie came from PPP. Eight polls from five other pollsters showed a Romney lead while four polls from PPP showed Obama ahead or a tie. This cannot be unintentional. The odds against such an outcome are astronomical. The only answer is that PPP makes sure that its results favor Obama.

Given that, it is worth mentioning the other PPP poll of the day. PPP finds a 5% Obama lead in Ohio during the period just after the Democrats convention when the Obama bounce would be biggest. Translating this into reality, I believe that the PPP poll indicates that Obama leads in Ohio by 1 or 2% just after his convention. By two weeks from now, Ohio should be back to being essentially tied. That is good news since the undecideds will almost certainly break towards Romney at the end which ought to win Ohio for him.




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