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Sunday, January 12, 2014

And Now For Some Actual Numbers -- Small Business Insurance Plans Get Hit With Cancellations

The Washington Post is out with a report on the effect of Obamacare on the folks who get health insurance through small businesses.  Around 24 million Americans get their insurance from employers in companies with fewer than 50 workers according to the WaPo.  If you add in family members, that number goes up to something like 50 million people who have insurance through this sort of policy.  The majority of these people are going to have their policies cancelled this year due to Obamacare.

Let's think about this together.

1.  When the individual market cancellations occurred, the White House told America that "only" about five million people were involved, so this was not an important matter.  Enough has already been said on the disgusting nature of this claim which would disregard five million people losing their insurance, so we can move on.  Fifty million people, however, is a lot of folks, even by the standards of the Obama White House.  Something like one person in six in America is going to be affected by this mess.

2.  According to the WaPo, big chunks of this market is going to see its policies cancelled.  Others will see the policies "amended" in ways that make them into something completely different.  Even folks with plans that meet the requirements of Obamacare are likely to see cancellations or changes since the burdens imposed on the insurance companies by Obamacare will force those companies to consolidate the plans that they offer and limit the coverage they provide in order to stay profitable.

3.  Some insurers are going to be driven out of this market segment, with the result that competition will fall and premiums will rise.  The WaPo points to Highmark Blue Cross/Blue Shield in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Delaware and its cancellation of 99.5% of its existing small business policies, a move that could affect millions of people.

4.  Some small business policies have already been cancelled.  (One is my own coverage which, I have been informed, will end on March 31st.)  The bulk of these cancellations, however, will be issued in October, just in time for the next open enrollment period for individual policies.  This is also the month prior to election day.  If you have ever wanted to predict a political event with absolute certainty, now is the time to make the prediction that president Obama is going to delay the next open enrollment period so that the cancellations can go out after election day.  This move may help Obama's party, but it will not prevent all of the resulting problems.  Insurers that plan to issue cancellation notices have to inform the state governments at least three months prior to actually issuing the cancellation notices so that all the bureaucratic procedures can be followed.  That means that state governments will know how many cancellations are coming.  Since 60% of American states have Republican governors, you can be sure that the imminent cancellations are going to be announced.  Even in the other states, we are likely to hear much of the information about cancellations leaking out.

One last note:  nothing written above covers the millions of other Americans who get their insurance through large employers.  This market too is about to be hit with major changes.  As the employer mandate goes into effect, Americans will see huge cost increases for the part of insurance that they pay themselves. The truth is that Obamacare should be redefined.  Obamacare is actually "agony, more agony but not much insurance."



 

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