Yahoo is promoting what it describes as a "horrifying" GIF that shows global warming since 1950 in just 15 seconds. Strangely, though, the animation is far from horrifying.
The article that comes with the animation explains that the mean global temperature in 2013 has risen by 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit since 1950. (1950 is used because that is the date most commonly accepted as the start of humanity's pumping of excess carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.) Normally, the warming trend is measured in degrees Celsius, so we ought to convert the difference to 0.6 degrees on that scale if we are to discuss the scientific literature. This gives rise to two important comments:
1. The global warming models that were being used during the 1990's predicted that by now, the average temperature would have risen by way more than twice the amount actually measured. Rather than horrifying anyone, the temperature rise ought to reassure observers that we are not seeing the rapid rise that was predicted.
2. During the years 1910 to 1940, temperature records show that the average global temperature rose by nearly as much as in the 63 years between 1950 and 2013. For those 30 years prior to the onset of the supposed cause of global warming, temperature rose by just over 0.5 degrees Celsius. Those same temperature records show that between 1940 and 1980, a date 30 years after the onset of people pumping excess carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, there was actually a slight decline in average global temperatures. So over the last 100 years we have 30 years of relatively quickly rising temperatures before the supposed cause began, forty years of declining temperatures during a period which mostly falls into the era of excess carbon dioxide, and a period from 1980 to 2013 when temperatures were again rising. Of course, one needs to factor in also that from 1997 until 2013, the temperatures stopped rising. The simple truth is that the models that predicted major global warming cannot explain the temperatures of the last 100 years. That means that these models are incomplete, incorrect, or both.
It would be nice if the people in the media who report on climate change would at least learn something about the subject. It won't happen, but at least we can dream.
The article that comes with the animation explains that the mean global temperature in 2013 has risen by 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit since 1950. (1950 is used because that is the date most commonly accepted as the start of humanity's pumping of excess carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.) Normally, the warming trend is measured in degrees Celsius, so we ought to convert the difference to 0.6 degrees on that scale if we are to discuss the scientific literature. This gives rise to two important comments:
1. The global warming models that were being used during the 1990's predicted that by now, the average temperature would have risen by way more than twice the amount actually measured. Rather than horrifying anyone, the temperature rise ought to reassure observers that we are not seeing the rapid rise that was predicted.
2. During the years 1910 to 1940, temperature records show that the average global temperature rose by nearly as much as in the 63 years between 1950 and 2013. For those 30 years prior to the onset of the supposed cause of global warming, temperature rose by just over 0.5 degrees Celsius. Those same temperature records show that between 1940 and 1980, a date 30 years after the onset of people pumping excess carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, there was actually a slight decline in average global temperatures. So over the last 100 years we have 30 years of relatively quickly rising temperatures before the supposed cause began, forty years of declining temperatures during a period which mostly falls into the era of excess carbon dioxide, and a period from 1980 to 2013 when temperatures were again rising. Of course, one needs to factor in also that from 1997 until 2013, the temperatures stopped rising. The simple truth is that the models that predicted major global warming cannot explain the temperatures of the last 100 years. That means that these models are incomplete, incorrect, or both.
It would be nice if the people in the media who report on climate change would at least learn something about the subject. It won't happen, but at least we can dream.
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