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Monday, January 27, 2014

Another Omen of What's Coming

Senator Kay Hagan is a North Carolina Democrat up for re-election this year.  She has consistently been one of the Democrat incumbents rated as one of the biggest targets for Republicans in 2014.  Nevertheless, all through 2013, Hagan led all of her potential GOP adversaries in poll after poll in North Carolina.  Then, just past the start of the year, there was one poll that showed the Republicans with a very narrow lead.  Today, Rasmussen is out with a poll of this race that shows Hagan 7% behind her most likely GOP opponent with a support level below 40%.  This is not just a bad place for an incumbent to find herself; it is a disaster if these numbers continue.

Hagan has been the target of ads in recent weeks that point out her staunch support for Obamacare.  Hagan like every other Democrat in the Senate provided the vote that put passage of Obamacare over the top.  She also promised North Carolinians that under Obamacare, they could keep their plans and their doctors if they liked them.  (I wonder where she heard that?)  The ads play up those comments and hang them around Hagan's neck.  Since the ads have been running, Hagan's poll numbers have fallen by roughly 10%.

It is true that there are no ads running in support of Hagan at the moment.  Nevertheless, the quick erosion of her support with just a small buy of anti-Obamacare focused ads speaks volumes about the problems faced by Democrats this year.  We have a long way to go until election day, but unless there is a major change, the Democrats are in big trouble.




 

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