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Monday, November 26, 2018

Back to Phony Polls?

Now that the elections are over and the pollsters will no longer face condemnation and ridicule if their numbers are way off, we are back to what seem to be phony polls.  Here's a good example from the latest two polls to announce the job approval data for President Trump.  According to Gallup, Trump is underwater by 22% with 60% disapproval and only 38% approval.  According to Rasmussen, Trump has a net positive rating of 3% with 51% approval and 48% disapproval.

Think about those two polls.  These are not results that vary due to different samples.  The figures are way too far apart for this to be just normal variation.  Remember, we're talking here about a swing of 25% of the voters in the margins of the two polls.

The only reasonable conclusion is that one of these polls is bogus.  And there's little question which one is likely bogus.  Rasmussen's results have been remarkably consistent over the last three months.  Trump has ranged between -4% and +3% in his margin.  On the other hand, Gallup (and most of the other polls) had Trump with approval numbers in the mid 40s until he suddenly plunged to only 38% in this latest poll.  Why the drop of 7%?  There's nothing different, no reason for the move. 

It's sad that the polls get used like this.

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