It was an interesting election yesterday, but it didn't really do anything too surprising. Here are a few takeaways.
1. There was no blue wave. For this entire year, all we have heard from the media and the Democrats was "blue wave" and more "blue wave". It didn't happen. While we don't have the final number for sure, it looks pretty certain that there will be a pickup of 4 seats by the GOP in the Senate. You can't have that and call the results a blue wave. The Dems picked up about 30 seats in the House, but that's not far off from an average result in the first midterm after the election of a new president. In 1994 and 2010, the GOP picked up closer to 60 seats. 2002 was an aberration, but that was in the aftermath of 9/11. In that election, the Republicans actually picked up a few seats. The governors' races were not nationalized. Democrats won a fair few more than they held previously, but other than Illinois (which everyone knew was clearly going to flip), the only important Dem victory was in Michigan. In the key races in Ohio and Florida, the GOP held on.
2. The polls were frequently wrong. They generally overestimated the Democrat vote in the senate races.
3. The turnout was high on both sides. It was a victory for Democracy.
4. Now we get to see gridlock in DC. How unusual -- it's like back to normal. The good part, however, is that Trump's economic plans have already been put in place. The Dems can't undo them. We are unlikely to see progress on immigration. Also, healthcare legislation will just languish and be an issue in 2020. That's too bad.
1. There was no blue wave. For this entire year, all we have heard from the media and the Democrats was "blue wave" and more "blue wave". It didn't happen. While we don't have the final number for sure, it looks pretty certain that there will be a pickup of 4 seats by the GOP in the Senate. You can't have that and call the results a blue wave. The Dems picked up about 30 seats in the House, but that's not far off from an average result in the first midterm after the election of a new president. In 1994 and 2010, the GOP picked up closer to 60 seats. 2002 was an aberration, but that was in the aftermath of 9/11. In that election, the Republicans actually picked up a few seats. The governors' races were not nationalized. Democrats won a fair few more than they held previously, but other than Illinois (which everyone knew was clearly going to flip), the only important Dem victory was in Michigan. In the key races in Ohio and Florida, the GOP held on.
2. The polls were frequently wrong. They generally overestimated the Democrat vote in the senate races.
3. The turnout was high on both sides. It was a victory for Democracy.
4. Now we get to see gridlock in DC. How unusual -- it's like back to normal. The good part, however, is that Trump's economic plans have already been put in place. The Dems can't undo them. We are unlikely to see progress on immigration. Also, healthcare legislation will just languish and be an issue in 2020. That's too bad.
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