The guns of May

Babara Tuchman's history "The Guns of August", in which she discusses the origins of World War I, makes the case that the conflict resulted from the advesaries taking steps like mobilization which the other side misunderstood. The escalation and further escalation led inevitably to war.

Today, North Korea has cut all ties to South Korea in response to the South Korean measures in response to the sinking of a South Korean navy ship by a North Korean submarine. the question presented is whether or not one side to the conflict will stop the escalation before more shots are fired. Indeed, the more accurate question is whether or not the NK's will stop escalating before they fire any more shots -- the likelihood of the south commencing a war is quite limited.

War on the Korean peninsula would be terrible. The NK's have nukes and there are American troops in the south who would become targets upon the commencement of hostilities. A war here would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like side shows. there are over two million men in the opposing armies and both sides have technologically advance weapons. The NK's also have an ally in China. Will the Chinese again take part in a renewed Korean War? If so, a total World War could be at hand.

Personally, I think the possibility of a new World War started in Korea is remote. The Chinese know that any such war would result in the total destruction of China (and the rest of the world). Nevertheless, the Chinese may calculate that Obama will not take any actions against them if they give aid to the NK's They see the example of Iran which arms insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan without any US countermeasures. In fact, Iranian troops have fought as irregulars in Iraq with no apparent consequences. A chinese miscalculation and a weak and disrespected US president could be the recipe for disaster.

Let's hope that calmer heads prevail.