Search This Blog

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

How low will it go?

Today's Rasmussen tracking poll on Obama's job performance has a number in it that must truly scare the White House. For the first time fully 45% out of the 1500 likely voters who were polled say that they "strongly disapprove" of Obama's performance as president. This is the all time high for this statistic.

Most polls regarding job approval list those who approve and those who disapprove. Each group includes those whose views shift back and forth depending on the news cycle. Strong approval and strong disapproval tends to be more sticky. Those in the "strong" group tend to have fixed views which are much more difficult to change. In addition, those with strong opinions are much more likely to actually vote, especially in off year elections like 2010. So here we are just over five months ahead of the midterm elections and the margin of those who strongly disapprove over those who strongly approve is 45% to 23%. This bodes very poorly for the Obamacrats in November. Unless Obama somehow manages to change perceptions of his competence (or lack thereof) in the next few months, millions of unhappy voters will come out to punish Obama's party. The danger for the Dems is quite clear.

No comments: