Yesterday, the Florida Republicans had a straw poll. Herman Cain won with over 37% of the vote. Rick Perry came in second with only 15%. Romney was third with 14%; then came Santorum at 11%, Paul at 10% and Gingrich at 8%. Huntsman and Bachman had 2% each. The results of a straw poll cannot be used to predict the future primary and caucus results. Nevertheless, these results are striking in a number of regards.
1) The obvious big news here is that Herman Cain got major victory. IT was not even close. It will be interesting to see if Cain can translate this victory into any momentum moving forward. Will his poll numbers now climb? Will his fundraising improve? Will anyone in Iowa care what happened in the Florida Straw Poll? Only time will tell.
2) Another big news item is that Rick Perry did so poorly. This crowd was tailor made for Perry. He should have won going away, but instead the only thing that was going away was his support. There are consequences from doing poorly at debates, and these results were one of those consequences.
3) Romney has made a point of not competing in this or any other straw poll. Thus, his third place finish is fine for him. He should be happy to see the Perry melt down, but we will still have to see where those Perry voters go if this is more than a transient event.
4) Santorum should be ecstatic. True, he finished in fourth place while Cain raced to the lead. Nevertheless, this is the first time that Santorum has been something other than an afterthought in this race. If he can grab 10% of the vote now, then he has a shot at getting himself up to the competative range by the time that the primary and caucus votes happen.
5) The Bachmann numbers show just how far she has fallen. It is just about a month since Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll, but she came in last place here out of eight. This is a body blow to her campaign.
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