Obama -- How bad are the Polls?

Presidential job approval polls are a lot like jumpin on a trampoline: they keep going up and down and can bounce all over the place. That is why the monthly polls done by Rasmussen are so informative. Each month, Rasmussen releases the summary results for the 15,000 people that it interviews during a month regarding the president's job approval status. These results get rid of daily and even weekly fluctuations. With their large sample, they are also significantly more accurate.

Reviewing the results for August, things do not look good for president Obama. Here are the keys:

1) Obama is now at the lowest level of strong support of his presidentcy. Only 21% of those polled strongly approve of the job Obama is doing. This is two points lower than the previous low. This is critical since the number who strongly approve is a proxy for the number who are excited about Obama's presidency, the folks who will work in the campaign, the people who are certain to vote. Obama won in 2008 by expanding the pool of voters; many young people and minorities voted for the first time to bring about what they saw as a historic result. When Obama took office fully 43% of the population strongly approved of his job performance. This decline from 43% to 21% is a good indication that it would be impossible for Obama to attract once again that army of new voters to the polls. Without them, Obama will likely lose.

2) The overall number of people who disapprove of Obama's job performance is 55% with 42% expressing strong disapproval. That 55% is Obama's highest number ever. Think of these numbers this way: The 42% who strongly disapprove are lost to Obama for good. they are going to vote for someone else. Indeed, the strong disapproval makes it likely that they will want to be sure to turn out to vote against him. The other 13% who express more mild disapproval are also a big problem. The people know the current conditions in the country, and they do not like them. Absent a noticeable change for the better, they are going to continue to give Obama failing grades.

Things certainly can change during the next year. Nevertheless, Obama faces an uphill battle.