This is staggering

The latest job approval poll for president Obama comes from the Economist/YouGov poll. It shows 36% say they approve of the job Obama is doing while 56% say they disapprove. It is the worst poll result ever for Obama. As bad as the overall result is, the analysis of the numbers shows that it is truly staggering.

First, let me say that I have not seen the internals of the poll, so my analysis is based upon results from other recent polls. The approval polls that provide a breakdown of their numbers have recently shown Obama's approval among African Americans is down in the area of 80 to 83%. If we assume that this poll found 80% approval among African Americans, then we can calculate the ratings among the remainder of the population. African Americans made up a little more than 13% of voters in the last election, but to be conservative, we will put them at only 12% for the next election. If we adjust the numbers to get the results for the remaining voters, they show that among non-African-American voters, the Obama approval numbers are 30% approval and 61% disapproval.

I think that it is hard to imagine these numbers, so I want to repeat them. This poll indicates that among whites, Hispanics, Asian Americans and others who do not self-classify as African-Americans, only 30% approve of the job that Obama is doing and over 60% disapprove. If these numbers were to translate into votes in the 2012 election, Obama would be lucky to carry any state and could be left with only the District of Columbia. If the same numbers translated into votes for Congress, then essentially every Democrat in a district with less than 40% African Americans is in trouble. That means that more than half of the Democrats in Congress would be in trouble.

Obviously, the numbers will not work out the way I just outlined above. Local issues and candidates will affect how the votes get cast. The point of the exercise is not to indicate the likely result on election day, but rather to indicate the size of the disaster for Obama and the Obamacrats if these numbers do not change.

Indeed, if we get a few more polls showing that these numbers are real, I expect to see a large number of congressional Democrats pulling away from Obama in the near future. Nothing moves a congressman faster than the chance he or she might lose the next election.

Strangely, the current jobs and tax plan coming from the White House is unlikely to change the numbers any time soon. Clearly, the plan is not going to pass; the Obamacrats have not even bothered to introduce the necessary bills into Congress. That means that the economy is unlikely to get better and Obama is going to look ineffectual when he cannot push his program through. Further, even many Democrats are against raising taxes when the economy is doing so poorly. In short, the only ones who are happy about the plan are the base of the party. They already approve of Obama. The plan will not pick up new strength for Obama.