What Happens with the Jews -- 2

The New York Times is out this morning with its analysis of Jewish voting and the policies of president Obama towards Israel. It is actually a pretty funny article that confirms everything about which I wrote yesterday.

First of all, it confirms the ultimate conceit of the Democrats. They are fighting back against those who point out the actions of Obama that have hurt Israel with -- are you ready -- talking points. That's right, the Democrats are going to give speeches and make comments that will convince folks that what they see happening really did not occur or that it really does not matter. My guess is that talking point number one will read something like this: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"

Second, when the Times tells us that the shift away from Obama will not be that big, it quotes Elliot Engel, a Democrat congressman from the Bronx. Engel estimates that the swing away from Obama among Jews will only be, at most, 20%. Those of you who read my prior post on this issue already know that a swing of that size could throw Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey and Florida to the GOP in a close election. In other words, that shift could result in a Democrat defeat.

Third, the Times argues that, "while Israel emerged as a hot-button issue late in the campaign, a poll by Siena College in early September showed that other issues, like the economy and Social Security and Medicare, were viewed as much more important, even by Jewish voters. With the Republican Party swinging further to the right, analysts said, it will have trouble appealing to more liberal-minded Jewish voters on these issues."

It is funny that this point actually made its way into print since it is so flawed. In the Turner victory, the Democrats spent enormous sums of money to make the point that Turner was a right winger from the Tea Party who wanted to "gut" Medicare and Social Security. The campaign had essentially no effect. There is no reason to believe that the scare tactics from the Democrats will work any better elsewhere.

The final point from the Times comes from J-Street, a group that the Times calls a "liberal advocacy group". Perhaps a better description would be an anti-zionist group. Except in certain far left precincts, relying on the view of J-street about how Jews will vote is, at best, silly.

The real truth is that we may well see a 20% shift in Jewish votes in 2012 compared with 2008. Indeed, if Obama cannot get the economy moving, the shift may be larger. Not all Jews will vote on the Israeli issue. In fact, it is doubtful that anything close to a majority will decide on that basis. Nevertheless, a huge percentage of Jews are aware of Obama's hostility towards Israel and it can and will color their perceptions of the president. For those who question the Obama policies in other areas, Obama's hostility towards Israel will push them to vote Obama out of office.