The Siena poll out today in the race to fill the now vacant congressional seat formerly held by Anthony Weiner is a shocker. It shows the Republican Turner ahead of the Democrat Weprin by 50-44%. A Republican victory in a special election in New York City would be a total shocker for Democrats. this is a district that is about 3 to 1 Democrat and it is the district that sent Chuck Schumer and Weiner to Congress for what seems like an eternity.
This is, of course, a special election, so the biggest determinant of who wins will be which groups actually come out to vote. Siena did not poll about that issue, but they did ask about the strength of the position held by each voter. They found that nearly all voters had their minds made up at this point and were unlikely to change. Only about six percent of the electorate said that they could change their minds.
Tuesday will be interesting for sure.
One last note: while a Republican victory in NYC would be an amazing upset, it should not be viewed as indicating anything beyond this particular race. Obviously, Weiner and his crotch tweets turned off a great many voters in the district. Beyond that, Weprin is a flawed candidate who seems unable to connect with the electorate in any meaningful way.
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