There are some amazing number out of Pennsylvania today. The Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall college in Lancaster PA asked Pennsylvanians whether president Obama deserves another term or if they want someone else in the office. By a margin of 52 to 41%, the residents of the Keystone State want someone new. This is astounding. Pennsylvania has been a purported battleground state seemingly forever, but in fact, it has voted for the Democrat in the last five presidential elections. The last Republican to carry the state was George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Even more astounding is the fact that in union households 59% of those questioned said they wanted to see someone new in the White House. And in the metropolitan area around Pittsburgh, 57% of those polled want Obama to be replaced by someone new. It is essentially impossible for a Democrat to carry Pennsylvania while losing either union households or the Pittsburgh area. It is totally impossible to carry the state while losing both constituencies.
If history means anything, if Obama loses Pennsylvania, it is almost certain that he will also lose Ohio and Indiana, and it may also mean that Michigan is going against him too. Were that to happen, we would surely see a new president innaugurated in January of 2013.
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