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Saturday, February 4, 2012

It's a New Campaign According to the NY Times

In a true triumph for wishful thinking, the New York Times announces on its front page today that the January unemployment figures have "altered the face" of the presidential campaign. According to the Times, with unemployment at 8.3% it has returned to the level where it was when Obama took office. This means that it is less of an issue than previously.

Oh my, where to begin with this garbage? Let's start with a basic truth. Obama took office in January of 2009; in that month unemployment came in at 7.8%. Indeed, in the weeks after the innauguration, Obama was busy pushing for his Stimulus with the promise that if it were passed, unemployment would never get above 8%. Did the Times forget this? Maybe the Times meant to use February of 2009 since that would be Obama's first full month in office. No, in that month, the unemployment figures came in at 8.1% of the workforce. In short, the Times is either grossly incompetent or just lying when it claims that unemployment is now back to where it was when Obama took office.

Second, the issue is not just unemployment. It is also underemployment and actual employment. Today, according to the latest government figures, there are one million fewer people with jobs in the USA than when Obama took office. There are also millions more people today who have part-time work only rather than full time; this category of folks is about 4 million people higher than it was in 2009. So, overall, there are about 5 million fewer people with full time jobs than there were three years ago. The economy and the labor market is hardly back to where it was when Obama took office, no matter what the Times may say.

Third, the issue of economic growth remains all important. There is no big constituency in the country for bringing down unemployment by forcing people to give up looking for work or by forcing the unemployed into temporary part-time jobs. People want regular, full-time employment, and only economic growth can deliver that result. Obama still needs to set forth a plan for fostering that growth, something that he has failed to do. Each of the GOP challengers has put forth a plan, and these plans have been debated over and over again. Obama just wants to raise taxes. Oh, he gives us the calls for high speed rail lines and electric cars, but these cannot drive the economy and even Obama would admit this. Obama has no coherent plan. Indeed, Obama has no plan whether coherent or not.

I realize that the NY Times is frantic to change the basic narrative of the campaign, but it will have to come to respect the fact that only the American people can do that. Economic growth is the most important issue by far. It has been the most important issue for years. It will remain the most important issue through the election.

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