The next GOP contest comes in Nevada. The most recent polls show Romney far ahead; this morning brought a poll with the lead at 25%. It is inevitable that Romney will win this contest. The key, however, is to understand that it was always inevitable that Romney would win this contest, even in the days when Gingrich was soaring. Romney's big weapon in Nevada is his religion; he gets overwhelming support from his fellow Mormons. In 2008, at a point where Romney had clearly been beaten for the nomination by McCain, Romney was still able to sweep Nevada. The exit polls showed that 26 percent of voters were Mormons and 95 percent supported Romney. There is no reason to think that the results will be any different this year.
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