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Friday, February 17, 2012

Syria piles up the dead -- NATO says it won't help

With the spiraling numbers of dead in Syria, now estimated to be far in excess of 10,000 killed, the head of the NATO alliance announced at an interview in Turkey that the alliance would not get involved. Here is how the news was reported by Reuters:

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the Western alliance had no intention of intervening in Syria even in the event of a UN mandate to protect civilians, and urged Middle East countries to find a way to end the spiraling violence.

Rasmussen told Reuters on Friday he also rejected the possibility of providing logistical support for proposed "humanitarian corridors" to ferry relief to towns and cities bearing the brunt of President Bashar Assad's crackdown on pro-democracy protesters.


So far, we know of three countries that have gotten involved in the fighting in Syria. Russia has continued to sell weapons to the Assad regime to replace those being used against the protesters. According to press reports, Iran has sent experts to Syria to help the Assad regime use nerve gas in its attacks on the protesters. Venezuela is rushing tankers of diesel fuel and gasoline to Syria to help the Assad regime make up for the fuel supplies that were lost when sanctions went into effect. In other words, three nasty regimes have rushed in to help a fourth crush any resistance from the people. No country has offered help to the protesters.

The sad thing is that the failure of the world community to get involved may soon lead to a war between Syria and Turkey, a war that could also include Iranian participation. Turkey borders Syria on the north. Muslims in Turkey are overwhelmingly Sunni as are nearly all the protesters in Syria (the Syrian government is comprised of Alawaites, a branch of Shiite Islam). The Turks may not be willing to sit by and watch the Syrians getting slaughtered. Further, the Turks are not going to want to have millions of Syrians fleeing to Turkey to get away from the Assad army.

Turkey, of course, is a member of NATO, so an attack by Syria on Turkey would lead to a joint response from NATO. If Turkey attacks Syria, however, NATO need not respond since it is a defensive pact only.

The likely outcome of Turkish involvement in Syria is a bloody war won by the Turks. The Turkish army is better equiped and has more soldiers. Nevertheless, such a fight would be a disaster for the area. If the Iranians were to get involved in such a fight, still other regional countries could be drawn into the fray. Iraq and Saudi Arabia are likely candidates to join with Egypt and Jordan also possibilities. During the war, Lebanon would likely just melt down.

Another outcome which we could see in Syria is for the Turks to stay out but for al Qaeda to get in. We have already heard from the new leader of the terrorists who is supporting the protesters. Just imagine if these protests ultimately are successful and the only outside group that supported the new government was al Qaeda.

We need some sort of leadership from president Obama on this issue now. Maybe someone should tell him that it is more important than his re-election campaign.

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