There's a new poll by Survey USA in California which has some very important numbers in it. Hillary Clinton is way ahead in California; that's not the big news. If it were close in California, there would be a Trump landslide elsewhere. No, the big news is in the question asked to determine who is a likely voter. Those answering the poll were asked about their voting history and intentions. The first choice was that they always vote in the election for president and will do so this year. The second choice was that they always vote in the election for president but do not like the candidates this year and likely will not vote. It is this second choice that is key. The results were striking. Among whites, 84% said they always vote and would do so this year, while 2% said they always vote but would not this year. Among blacks, those same figures were 76% and 12%.
These results could be off. After all, this is just one poll. But let's assume for a moment that the figures are accurate. I something like 12% of African Americans who normally vote stay home this year, it will be a crushing blow to Hillary Clinton. In 2012, blacks were about 13% of the total vote. If 12% stay home, that figure would be reduced to 11.4% of the vote. That change alone would make the popular vote margin shift by about 1.5%. In a close election, it could spell defeat for Hillary.
For many decades, blacks voted in lower numbers than whites. That switched in the last two elections when president Obama was on the ballot. A switch back to old turnout models would mean a big shift towards Trump. If you add in the dissatisfaction of blacks with both nominees and even lower turnout, there would be even more help for Trump.
These results could be off. After all, this is just one poll. But let's assume for a moment that the figures are accurate. I something like 12% of African Americans who normally vote stay home this year, it will be a crushing blow to Hillary Clinton. In 2012, blacks were about 13% of the total vote. If 12% stay home, that figure would be reduced to 11.4% of the vote. That change alone would make the popular vote margin shift by about 1.5%. In a close election, it could spell defeat for Hillary.
For many decades, blacks voted in lower numbers than whites. That switched in the last two elections when president Obama was on the ballot. A switch back to old turnout models would mean a big shift towards Trump. If you add in the dissatisfaction of blacks with both nominees and even lower turnout, there would be even more help for Trump.
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