One of the things that has motivated a great amount of debate during the current presidential campaign is American relations with Russia and its strongman president Putin. Four years ago, president Obama belittled Mitt Romney for calling Russia a geopolitical adversary of the USA. Since then, it has become clear to even the casual observer that Russia is a geopolitical adversary of the USA. Indeed, this years Democrat stance regarding Russia is that Donald Trump has too nice an attitude towards Putin. Hillary Clinton, who authored the so called "Russian reset" under which the USA dropped all sanctions against Russia for its invasion of neighboring Georgia, now pretends to be a hawk in confronting the Russians.
The reality, however, is that over the long run, none of this matters much. Containing Russia and the damage it does will be enough. Russia is withering away. The Russians have such a low birth rate that the nation is slowly committing demographic suicide.
Here is the best evidence of the grim future for Russia. In 1950, the Russian Federation (which was then part of the USSR) had a population of 103 million people. The UN population estimate for Russia for 2050 (under the medium rate ave erages) is 104 million people. Currently, there are about 133 million people in Russia. Now let's compare that to the US using the same UN statistics. In 1950, the US had 158 million people. Today America has about 324 million people. The estimate for 2050 is that there will be 397 million Americans. India went from 357 million in 1950 to 1.57 billion in 2050. China is expected to go from 555 million in 1950 to 1.46 billion in 2050. In 2050, if these projections prove true, Russia will be the 17th largest nation by population. That is hardly a statistic that supports a continued role for the Russians as a world power.
When it comes to economic matters, Russia is already a minor country. The Russian economy ranks 14th in size in the world, right between Mexico and Australia. Even worse for the Russians, the prices at which they sell their natural resources have stayed low for a while now, so that is squeezing the Russian economy. There is no expectation of any great growth for the Russian GDP.
Put all this together and you find that the demographic trends coupled with a weak economy mean that Russia will be a declining power for decades to come. Sure, the Russians have a massive nuclear force left from the Soviet Union. That always will make Russia a country with a seat at the table. The nukes, however, will not prevent the Russians from continuing to weaken.
America needs to have a policy towards the Russians that prevents disputes where possible. It is not necessary to follow the Obama example and to give in whenever challenged. Putin and his government realize that ultimately Russia is not able to keep up with world powers in a real confrontation. He will not let things get that far.
The reality, however, is that over the long run, none of this matters much. Containing Russia and the damage it does will be enough. Russia is withering away. The Russians have such a low birth rate that the nation is slowly committing demographic suicide.
Here is the best evidence of the grim future for Russia. In 1950, the Russian Federation (which was then part of the USSR) had a population of 103 million people. The UN population estimate for Russia for 2050 (under the medium rate ave erages) is 104 million people. Currently, there are about 133 million people in Russia. Now let's compare that to the US using the same UN statistics. In 1950, the US had 158 million people. Today America has about 324 million people. The estimate for 2050 is that there will be 397 million Americans. India went from 357 million in 1950 to 1.57 billion in 2050. China is expected to go from 555 million in 1950 to 1.46 billion in 2050. In 2050, if these projections prove true, Russia will be the 17th largest nation by population. That is hardly a statistic that supports a continued role for the Russians as a world power.
When it comes to economic matters, Russia is already a minor country. The Russian economy ranks 14th in size in the world, right between Mexico and Australia. Even worse for the Russians, the prices at which they sell their natural resources have stayed low for a while now, so that is squeezing the Russian economy. There is no expectation of any great growth for the Russian GDP.
Put all this together and you find that the demographic trends coupled with a weak economy mean that Russia will be a declining power for decades to come. Sure, the Russians have a massive nuclear force left from the Soviet Union. That always will make Russia a country with a seat at the table. The nukes, however, will not prevent the Russians from continuing to weaken.
America needs to have a policy towards the Russians that prevents disputes where possible. It is not necessary to follow the Obama example and to give in whenever challenged. Putin and his government realize that ultimately Russia is not able to keep up with world powers in a real confrontation. He will not let things get that far.
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