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Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Ohio Keeps Shifting Towards Trump

There were three big polls out today of the presidential race in Ohio.  They each showed Trump ahead by 5% in the Buckeye State.  Further, when the average of all recent polls is compiled for Ohio, Trump is up by one and one half percent over Clinton.  That is not a big lead, but it is the first time Trump has been ahead.  Even right after the GOP convention when Trump led in the national polls, he still did not pull ahead in Ohio.  That's now changed.

It's hard to overstate how important these polls are if they accurately reflect what is happening n Ohio.  The usual line is to say that no Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio.  Since Trump has also moved ahead in Florida, he is closing in on a majority in the electoral college.

Okay, let's take a step back.  These are just a bunch of polls taken nearly two months before election day.  They can change easily.  The debates could switch millions of votes.  Events around the world could alter voters' choices.  Still, it was just a month ago that the media and the pundits all told us that the election was over; Hillary had won.  The only question was how big her margin would be.  Now, four weeks later, Hillary is hanging on by her fingernails but the trend is certainly not her friend.

Let's throw in also the Colorado polls also put Trump ahead in recent days.  One month ago, Hillary stopped advertising in Colorado because she had it wrapped up; now she's behind.  Then there are states like Maine and Rhode Island which ought to be strongly for Hillary but where polls in the last week have her only 3% ahead of Trump.

I actually wonder if Hillary has pneumonia or if she is just experiencing a panic attack as her lead disappears and Trump pulls ahead.

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