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Thursday, September 15, 2016

More Polling Proving The Shift

If Hillary Clinton loses to Donald Trump, it may come to be recognized that her loss is the result of an average citizen who took a cell phone video.  By now, nearly everyone in America has seen the video of Hillary leaving the 9-11 memorial ceremony and fainting while trying to get into her vehicle.  It has been played on cable news so often that it must be more than 1000 times by now.  Hillary looks weak and fragile.  She looks like she could never handle a tough situation as president.  And then, on top of all that, she had her campaign lie about what caused it.  It is not playing well with the average American.

There are new polls out today that drive home this point.  Let's look at the four way polls that include Hillary, Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.  A few weeks ago, the Real Clear Politics average of these polls had Hillary up by nearly 7%.  As of this morning, that average is now Hillary up by 1.1%.  It is a stunning shift.  Even worse for Hillary, however, if you limit the polls to only those that include at least some of the period after her collapse on 9-11, Hillary's lead is 0.2%.  Even the 0.2% figure understates the full shift away from Hillary.  All of the polls included in the average include at least some time prior to Hillary's collapse. 

Hillary will be back on the campaign trail today.  Maybe if she looks vigorous, she will be able to win back some support.  If she trips or coughs or in any way looks weak, however, it may seal her doom.  Then we'll have the debates.  There too, any hint of physical weakness will do her in. 

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