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Saturday, September 10, 2016

In Syria, Russia Wins

For the last few days, the mainstream media has been buzzing about Donald Trump calling Putin a better leader for Russia than Obama is for the USA.  How dare he say that is the cry; Putin annexed Crimea and invaded Ukraine.  Then, as if on cue, the US and Russia announced an agreement for a cease fire in Syria which is a major victory for Russia.  Putin wins again.

Let's look at the details.  (1) Under the agreement announced in Europe by John Kerry and the Russian foreign minister, there is to be a cease fire in Syria for all fighting except against ISIS.  That's good for everyone.  (2) After a one week cease fire, there will be a joint American-Russian effort against ISIS.  It will bring an unprecedented level of military cooperation between the two countries.  In other words, all that condemnation of Russia for its actions in Crimea and Ukraine are forgotten and the USA and Russia are becoming allies in Syria.  Putin wins and Obama eats his words.  (3) Meanwhile, Assad stays in office.  Five years ago, Obama announced that Assad must go.  Now, Obama agrees that Assad can stay.  Putin is Assad's protector.  Chalk that one up as a major win for Putin and Russia.  (4) The US and Russia are not only going militarily after ISIS but also the Nusra front.  The Nusra front is affiliated with al Qaeda, but it operates in many of the same places as the Free Syrian Army and other Sunni rebels that the USA is supporting in the Syrian war.  By going after the Nusra front, we put our allies at risk.  In other words, in three weeks when Russian planes bomb Nusra positions and happen to hit Free Syrian Army positions instead, America is supposed to smile and be happy; it's all in accordance with this new agreement.  The reality is that the US actually agreed to let the Russians continue to attack the Sunni rebels in the guise of hitting the Nusra front.  Putin has advanced Assad's cause in a major way and gotten the USA to put America's allies into a terrible position.  Looks like another big win for Putin and a big loss for the USA.  (5) There is no provision in the agreement penalizing the Assad government for its continuing use of chemical weapons.  It was once Obama's "red line".  Now it is just a memory.  Putin wins again.  (6) There is no provision regarding the Kurds (at least which has been announced to the public.  The Kurds have been America's strongest and most consistent ally in the fight against ISIS.  They hold a large swath of territory along Syria's northern border.  Leaving protection for them out of the agreement is yet another victory for Putin and a loss for Obama.  Once again Putin got the USA/Obama to abandon an ally.

The Syrian agreement makes clear that Trump is correct:  Putin is a much better leader than Obama.

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