There's a senate race in Indiana that has national importance. Republican Todd Young is running against Democrat Even Bayh. Young is currently in the House and Bayh is a former senator who lost in a bid for re-election six years ago. The seat is open because the current senator Dan Coats decided not to seek re-election.
This race has had some major twists. In the primary, the Democrats nominated Baron Hill. As the polling showed Hill far behind Young, however, the party convinced Hill to give up the nomination he had won and to drop out of the race. At that point, the party leaders chose Evan Bayh to be the nominee even though Bayh had not bothered to enter the primary. Bayh has a name that is storied in Indiana history. His father Birch Bayh was a senator from Indiana for five terms. Bayh himself was a senator for two terms. That makes 42 years out of the last 56 that there was a Bayh in the senate representing Indiana. The initial polling after the Democrats disregarded the primary results and pulled their switch showed Bayh way ahead; he had a lead in double digits over Young.
The polling lead for Bayh has shrunk. In a poll just out, Bayh is still ahead, but his lead is now down to 4%, within the margin of error of the poll. It's shocking news for the Democrats. Recent polls also show Donald Trump with a substantial lead in the state over Hillary Clinton. No doubt Trump is helped here by his running mate, Indiana governor Mike Pence. Indeed, as time has passed, Trump's lead in the state has grown. Also as time has passed, more people in Indiana remembered why they voted Bayh out of office six years ago and his numbers have tanked. Indeed, the change in the senate polls have been the result of Bayh losing support rather than Young gaining much support. If the trend continues, however, Bayh will lose on election day.
If the Democrats are to regain control of the Senate, a victory by Bayh is necessary. If the GOP holds this seat, the odds of the Democrats gaining control are less than 50-50. As other polling is showing the incumbent GOP senators in states like Ohio, Florida, NC and PA gaining strength, the trend of the moment is favoring the Republicans. There's way too much time to make any real predictions as to who will win, but for the GOP, the trend is their friend as of now.
This race has had some major twists. In the primary, the Democrats nominated Baron Hill. As the polling showed Hill far behind Young, however, the party convinced Hill to give up the nomination he had won and to drop out of the race. At that point, the party leaders chose Evan Bayh to be the nominee even though Bayh had not bothered to enter the primary. Bayh has a name that is storied in Indiana history. His father Birch Bayh was a senator from Indiana for five terms. Bayh himself was a senator for two terms. That makes 42 years out of the last 56 that there was a Bayh in the senate representing Indiana. The initial polling after the Democrats disregarded the primary results and pulled their switch showed Bayh way ahead; he had a lead in double digits over Young.
The polling lead for Bayh has shrunk. In a poll just out, Bayh is still ahead, but his lead is now down to 4%, within the margin of error of the poll. It's shocking news for the Democrats. Recent polls also show Donald Trump with a substantial lead in the state over Hillary Clinton. No doubt Trump is helped here by his running mate, Indiana governor Mike Pence. Indeed, as time has passed, Trump's lead in the state has grown. Also as time has passed, more people in Indiana remembered why they voted Bayh out of office six years ago and his numbers have tanked. Indeed, the change in the senate polls have been the result of Bayh losing support rather than Young gaining much support. If the trend continues, however, Bayh will lose on election day.
If the Democrats are to regain control of the Senate, a victory by Bayh is necessary. If the GOP holds this seat, the odds of the Democrats gaining control are less than 50-50. As other polling is showing the incumbent GOP senators in states like Ohio, Florida, NC and PA gaining strength, the trend of the moment is favoring the Republicans. There's way too much time to make any real predictions as to who will win, but for the GOP, the trend is their friend as of now.
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