We've been told for the last year that a blue wave was coming that would sweep the Democrats back into the control of Congress. It's inevitable, or so the mainstream media told us. Wrong.
A few weeks back, even the Democrat pollsters started admitting that it will be very difficult for the Democrats to win the Senate. Too many races are moving towards the GOP. But the House was still a certainty for the Democrats, or so we were told.
Here's a bit of information that is worth considering as you ponder what will happen in the House.
A NY Times/Siena poll of the eighth district of Minnesota finds the Republican candidate Stauber up in that race by 51-32%. That's not a polling error we are seeing. It's a blow out. The district is currently represented by a Democrat, so a Stauber victory would be a GOP pickup.
I mention Minnesota's eighth district because it is one of those districts listed as a "toss up" by Real Clear Politics and the Cook Political Report. 51-49 would be a toss up. 51-32 is no toss up.
Then there's Florida's 27th district. The Democrats got former cabinet secretary Donna Shalala to run as their candidate. They expected her to win easily. The latest polls show her trailing and her trend is down while her GOP opponent's trend is up. This doesn't look at the moment like a Democrat pickup. It is rated as "leans Democrat" by two of the major "experts".
Look, there are 435 House races, so it will always be possible that the pollsters and pundits will miss one or two. That is the charitable view, however. There are really only about 60 or so seats where the outcome could go either way, so those are the only ones that need close attention. Since the Kavanaugh confirmation, the polls in almost every one of these 60 districts have moved towards the Republicans.
Blue wave? What blue wave?
A few weeks back, even the Democrat pollsters started admitting that it will be very difficult for the Democrats to win the Senate. Too many races are moving towards the GOP. But the House was still a certainty for the Democrats, or so we were told.
Here's a bit of information that is worth considering as you ponder what will happen in the House.
A NY Times/Siena poll of the eighth district of Minnesota finds the Republican candidate Stauber up in that race by 51-32%. That's not a polling error we are seeing. It's a blow out. The district is currently represented by a Democrat, so a Stauber victory would be a GOP pickup.
I mention Minnesota's eighth district because it is one of those districts listed as a "toss up" by Real Clear Politics and the Cook Political Report. 51-49 would be a toss up. 51-32 is no toss up.
Then there's Florida's 27th district. The Democrats got former cabinet secretary Donna Shalala to run as their candidate. They expected her to win easily. The latest polls show her trailing and her trend is down while her GOP opponent's trend is up. This doesn't look at the moment like a Democrat pickup. It is rated as "leans Democrat" by two of the major "experts".
Look, there are 435 House races, so it will always be possible that the pollsters and pundits will miss one or two. That is the charitable view, however. There are really only about 60 or so seats where the outcome could go either way, so those are the only ones that need close attention. Since the Kavanaugh confirmation, the polls in almost every one of these 60 districts have moved towards the Republicans.
Blue wave? What blue wave?
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