The last few weeks have been consumed with little more than the fight over confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Bret Kavanaugh. The confirmation process would have been completed two weeks ago, but at the last minute the Democrats leaked the letter from Dr. Ford and when that didn't derail Kavanaugh, they leaked Dr. Ford's name. Then we went through day after day of one Democrat after another telling us how not only did they believe dr. Ford, but that all America had to believe her because she was a victim. The Dems demanded and got (to their surprise) a hearing where dr. Ford told her tale and Judge Kavanaugh responded. Then the Dems demanded and got (to their surprise) an FBI investigation which has apparently turned up nothing new. Now we are going towards a vote on cloture tomorrow and on the nomination itself on Saturday. The Dems are apoplectic about the nomination moving towards a vote. They are claiming everything from the FBI curtailing the investigation to finding new evidence, to arguing that Kavanaugh is a drunk, to claiming that Kavanaugh lied, to you name it. The Dem support groups are even physically threatening and harassing GOP senators and claim much worse is coming if Kavanaugh is confirmed.
So if Kavanaugh is seated on the Supreme Court, what will the Democrats have gained from all this? In other words, what did the Kavanaugh fight accomplish for the Democrats? Here are just a few things that this fight has done:
1. The fight has soaked up all the new coverage of the last three weeks at a minimum. That means that Democrat senators running for re-election in red states have been unable to get their messages heard. Everything has been about Judge Kavanaugh, and that is a bad message for Democrats in these states. A senator like Heidi Heitkamp in ND has been forced to make a choice between voting to confirm Kavanaugh and thereby incensing her Democrat base or voting to reject Kavanaugh thereby angering the majority of ND voters who are Republicans. Heitkamp cannot claim to be non-partisan or independent of the DC Democrat leadership once she follows the demands of Schumer to vote against Kavanaugh. This same problem afflicts senators like Claire McCaskill in MO, Joe Donnelly in IN, Joe Manchin in WV, John Tester in MT, among others. Those running in open seats face the same problem. Phil Bredesen in TN has had his poll numbers tank while the Kavanaugh fight has persisted, for example.
2. The fight over Kavanaugh has managed to do something that the GOP has been unable to do by itself: it brought together many of the never-Trumpers and pro-Trumpers. There aren't many never-Trumpers among Republicans, but these people have been just as angered by the Demcrats' smear campaign as the other members of the GOP. Those never-Trumpers who considered not voting in 2018 have changed their minds.
3. Among Republican voters in general, the Kavanaugh fight has provided a major reason to get out and vote. The Democrats managed to show one more time what the country would be like were they to actually hold power. No sane person wants that.
4. The Kavanaugh fight has also managed to push some Democrat voters towards the Republicans. There are a lot of people who find it reprehensible that the Democrats could actually renege on the idea that a person is innocent until proven guilty. That position is condemned by a large majority of the American people. Then there are all those Democrats who didn't buy dr. Ford's story or who saw Kavanaugh and his family as unfairly attacked.
5. There surely must be some people who moved away from the GOP and towards the Dems during this confrontation. The problem that the Dems face, however, is that those who are most prone to move that way are people who would already have been in the Dem camp before all this began.
Recent polling has supported much of the foregoing. Senator Heitkamp has gone from being down 3-4% in her ND race to being down 10-12%. In TN, Republican Marsha Blackburn went from being slightly behind to being up by more than 5% in the latest poll. The numbers for the senate nominees of the Dems in MO, MT, IN and WV have all sunk over the last few weeks. Polls that measure enthusiasm show that the Republican voters are now just as enthusiastic about voting next month as are the Democrats. Before the latest spasm of Kavanaugh confrontation, the Dems were way ahead in those polls.
These are all political results for the Kavanaugh fight, but there are also some which are non-political.
1. Once Kavanaugh is on the court, he is unlikely to be coopted towards the liberal view as some past GOP nominees have been. I doubt he will soon forget just how brutal these folks have been towards him and his family.
2. If Trump gets another nomination to the Supreme Court, it is likely that he will nominate judge Barrett. As a woman, she is much less likely to face allegations of sexual harassment (although given the Dems, you never know.) Compared to Amy Barrett, Bret Kavanaugh is a liberal. This nomination would cement conservative control of the court for decades.
3. The chances of the two sides in Congress working together has declined even further. Republicans will no longer be waiting for that to happen, however. They've seen the Democrat attack/smear machine in action, and they don't like it. Getting Lindsay Graham to blow up the way he did is proof that most GOP members understand fully what they are facing. If the GOP retains control of the House, we are likely to see some important legislation on Trump's agenda (like the wall, etc) being pushed through. The Dems will have a choice to continue to obstruct, but if the Kavanaugh fight really hurts them politically, they are unlikely to try to duplicate that process moving forward.
So if Kavanaugh is seated on the Supreme Court, what will the Democrats have gained from all this? In other words, what did the Kavanaugh fight accomplish for the Democrats? Here are just a few things that this fight has done:
1. The fight has soaked up all the new coverage of the last three weeks at a minimum. That means that Democrat senators running for re-election in red states have been unable to get their messages heard. Everything has been about Judge Kavanaugh, and that is a bad message for Democrats in these states. A senator like Heidi Heitkamp in ND has been forced to make a choice between voting to confirm Kavanaugh and thereby incensing her Democrat base or voting to reject Kavanaugh thereby angering the majority of ND voters who are Republicans. Heitkamp cannot claim to be non-partisan or independent of the DC Democrat leadership once she follows the demands of Schumer to vote against Kavanaugh. This same problem afflicts senators like Claire McCaskill in MO, Joe Donnelly in IN, Joe Manchin in WV, John Tester in MT, among others. Those running in open seats face the same problem. Phil Bredesen in TN has had his poll numbers tank while the Kavanaugh fight has persisted, for example.
2. The fight over Kavanaugh has managed to do something that the GOP has been unable to do by itself: it brought together many of the never-Trumpers and pro-Trumpers. There aren't many never-Trumpers among Republicans, but these people have been just as angered by the Demcrats' smear campaign as the other members of the GOP. Those never-Trumpers who considered not voting in 2018 have changed their minds.
3. Among Republican voters in general, the Kavanaugh fight has provided a major reason to get out and vote. The Democrats managed to show one more time what the country would be like were they to actually hold power. No sane person wants that.
4. The Kavanaugh fight has also managed to push some Democrat voters towards the Republicans. There are a lot of people who find it reprehensible that the Democrats could actually renege on the idea that a person is innocent until proven guilty. That position is condemned by a large majority of the American people. Then there are all those Democrats who didn't buy dr. Ford's story or who saw Kavanaugh and his family as unfairly attacked.
5. There surely must be some people who moved away from the GOP and towards the Dems during this confrontation. The problem that the Dems face, however, is that those who are most prone to move that way are people who would already have been in the Dem camp before all this began.
Recent polling has supported much of the foregoing. Senator Heitkamp has gone from being down 3-4% in her ND race to being down 10-12%. In TN, Republican Marsha Blackburn went from being slightly behind to being up by more than 5% in the latest poll. The numbers for the senate nominees of the Dems in MO, MT, IN and WV have all sunk over the last few weeks. Polls that measure enthusiasm show that the Republican voters are now just as enthusiastic about voting next month as are the Democrats. Before the latest spasm of Kavanaugh confrontation, the Dems were way ahead in those polls.
These are all political results for the Kavanaugh fight, but there are also some which are non-political.
1. Once Kavanaugh is on the court, he is unlikely to be coopted towards the liberal view as some past GOP nominees have been. I doubt he will soon forget just how brutal these folks have been towards him and his family.
2. If Trump gets another nomination to the Supreme Court, it is likely that he will nominate judge Barrett. As a woman, she is much less likely to face allegations of sexual harassment (although given the Dems, you never know.) Compared to Amy Barrett, Bret Kavanaugh is a liberal. This nomination would cement conservative control of the court for decades.
3. The chances of the two sides in Congress working together has declined even further. Republicans will no longer be waiting for that to happen, however. They've seen the Democrat attack/smear machine in action, and they don't like it. Getting Lindsay Graham to blow up the way he did is proof that most GOP members understand fully what they are facing. If the GOP retains control of the House, we are likely to see some important legislation on Trump's agenda (like the wall, etc) being pushed through. The Dems will have a choice to continue to obstruct, but if the Kavanaugh fight really hurts them politically, they are unlikely to try to duplicate that process moving forward.
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