In the state of Florida, there are two close and important races. Senator Bill Nelson is defending his seat against Republican Rick Scott. In the governor's race, Republican De Santis is opposed by Democrat Gillum. De Santis is Hispanic while Gillum is African American.
The polls are close. Most of the recent ones have the Democrats slightly ahead. And then there's the actual vote counts which says it is time to throw away all those polls.
Historically in Florida, the GOP leads in absentee ballots, the Dems lead in early voting, and the GOP leads on Election Day voting. These trends have stayed in place through all the elections since the start of early voting. So where are we now?
1. The GOP is way ahead in absentee voting.
2. The Dems are just about breaking even in the early voting.
With just over ten days to go until election day, the Republicans have a lead of about 50,000 votes statewide coming from absentee and early voting combined. That's with more than a million votes already in. While these are registration figures and not actual votes, it seems as if the GOP is doing quite well.
Then there's this: the breakdown of absentee/early voting by race is 75% white and 8.5% black. The census figures put the Florida population as something like 75% white and 16% black. That means that African Americans are not turning out as of yet. For the Democrats, low black turnout is a major omen of disaster.
There's also this: so far the number of voters over 85 is the same as the number of voters ages 18-29. Think about that for a minute. Very elderly voters are equaling the number of millennials even though there are more than five times the numbers of 18-29 year olds in Florida compared to the elderly. Again, 18-29 is a strong support group for Democrats, so this is a very bad sign for the Dems.
It may be that all the old trends have shifted this year. Maybe the Dems will win Florida. Nevertheless, these voting figures seem to clearly indicate that both Nelson and Gillum are going down to defeat, indeed a pretty bad defeat.
The polls are close. Most of the recent ones have the Democrats slightly ahead. And then there's the actual vote counts which says it is time to throw away all those polls.
Historically in Florida, the GOP leads in absentee ballots, the Dems lead in early voting, and the GOP leads on Election Day voting. These trends have stayed in place through all the elections since the start of early voting. So where are we now?
1. The GOP is way ahead in absentee voting.
2. The Dems are just about breaking even in the early voting.
With just over ten days to go until election day, the Republicans have a lead of about 50,000 votes statewide coming from absentee and early voting combined. That's with more than a million votes already in. While these are registration figures and not actual votes, it seems as if the GOP is doing quite well.
Then there's this: the breakdown of absentee/early voting by race is 75% white and 8.5% black. The census figures put the Florida population as something like 75% white and 16% black. That means that African Americans are not turning out as of yet. For the Democrats, low black turnout is a major omen of disaster.
There's also this: so far the number of voters over 85 is the same as the number of voters ages 18-29. Think about that for a minute. Very elderly voters are equaling the number of millennials even though there are more than five times the numbers of 18-29 year olds in Florida compared to the elderly. Again, 18-29 is a strong support group for Democrats, so this is a very bad sign for the Dems.
It may be that all the old trends have shifted this year. Maybe the Dems will win Florida. Nevertheless, these voting figures seem to clearly indicate that both Nelson and Gillum are going down to defeat, indeed a pretty bad defeat.
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