The Russians supplied their S-300 anti-aircraft systems to the Assad regime in Syria over the last few weeks. Right now, the Russians are training the Syrians to operate the system, so there are Russian forces sitting at the controls with their Syrian students. These anti-aircraft missiles threaten American air operations in the region.
What's the impact of this new system? Are there actually many American air ops anymore now that ISIS has been obliterated? There are only a few rural areas where ISIS forces remain, and they are withering away as I write this. The truth, however, is that there are important American interests at stake in Syria which could be harmed by the new Russian systems.
Let's start with a basic review of just who controls Syria at the moment. The western two-thirds (along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea) is mostly under Assad control. There is an area near Turkey centered in Idlib where the rebels hold power. The eastern third of the country (east of the Euphrates River) is almost devoid of Assad forces. It is instead controlled by the Kurdish forces as well as by the Syrian rebel forces supported by the USA. This is where US military forces are located. About six months ago, the Assad forces with Russian support tried to move on a base in this eastern third of the country where there were substantial American forces. That attempt was beaten back with the use of overwhelming air power combined with ground forces. There were literally hundreds of Assad forces and Russian forces who were killed. There were no known American casualties. Recently, the Assad forces and their Russian supporters were massing troops for a new attack over the same terrain. The US forces in the area conducted a major "drill" against a potential attacker, and the Assad forces pulled back. Next time, however, Assad may conclude that his new anti-aircraft missiles will keep the US planes from wiping away his men. The result could be an attack into the eastern third of Syria. It could also mean that US forces suffer casualties.
The anti-aircraft missiles may also cause Assad to start using chemical weapons again. It's possible that Assad thinks he could use the Russian system to shoot down American cruise missiles or to dissuade President Trump from ordering another retaliation if another chemical attack comes.
The Russian anti-aircraft missile system may also dissuade the Israelis from attacking Iranian shipments bound for Hezbollah. I doubt that any reticence by the Israelis on that front would last very long, however. That could set up a confrontation and even a war between Israel and Syria with the Russians supporting Syria. Any strenuous efforts by Moscow would surely bring an American response. That is highly dangerous.
Very little attention is being given to this problem here in America. The media has been almost completely silent. It is too busy reporting new ways to attack Kanye West. These latest developments in Syria, however, will have much more long term impact on the world.
What's the impact of this new system? Are there actually many American air ops anymore now that ISIS has been obliterated? There are only a few rural areas where ISIS forces remain, and they are withering away as I write this. The truth, however, is that there are important American interests at stake in Syria which could be harmed by the new Russian systems.
Let's start with a basic review of just who controls Syria at the moment. The western two-thirds (along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea) is mostly under Assad control. There is an area near Turkey centered in Idlib where the rebels hold power. The eastern third of the country (east of the Euphrates River) is almost devoid of Assad forces. It is instead controlled by the Kurdish forces as well as by the Syrian rebel forces supported by the USA. This is where US military forces are located. About six months ago, the Assad forces with Russian support tried to move on a base in this eastern third of the country where there were substantial American forces. That attempt was beaten back with the use of overwhelming air power combined with ground forces. There were literally hundreds of Assad forces and Russian forces who were killed. There were no known American casualties. Recently, the Assad forces and their Russian supporters were massing troops for a new attack over the same terrain. The US forces in the area conducted a major "drill" against a potential attacker, and the Assad forces pulled back. Next time, however, Assad may conclude that his new anti-aircraft missiles will keep the US planes from wiping away his men. The result could be an attack into the eastern third of Syria. It could also mean that US forces suffer casualties.
The anti-aircraft missiles may also cause Assad to start using chemical weapons again. It's possible that Assad thinks he could use the Russian system to shoot down American cruise missiles or to dissuade President Trump from ordering another retaliation if another chemical attack comes.
The Russian anti-aircraft missile system may also dissuade the Israelis from attacking Iranian shipments bound for Hezbollah. I doubt that any reticence by the Israelis on that front would last very long, however. That could set up a confrontation and even a war between Israel and Syria with the Russians supporting Syria. Any strenuous efforts by Moscow would surely bring an American response. That is highly dangerous.
Very little attention is being given to this problem here in America. The media has been almost completely silent. It is too busy reporting new ways to attack Kanye West. These latest developments in Syria, however, will have much more long term impact on the world.
No comments:
Post a Comment