After month after month of speculation and prediction, the November elections are finally drawing close. Voting is three weeks from Tuesday. We will finally get to see if there is a blue wave, a red tide, or not much of any change.
There are a few harbingers of where things are going that are worth mentioning.:
The House:
We've been told since about a year ago that the Democrats will be taking back control of the House. It's the blue wave, the Trump disapproval numbers, the GOP tax cuts, the women's vote and all other manner of things that were going to lock in Democrat victory according to the media. But that hasn't happened. Here are some important figures from polling for House races summarized by Real Clear Politics.
As of a month ago, the projections based upon polling showed 206 Democrats ahead, 189 Republicans ahead and 40 toss up races. As of two weeks ago, the numbers hadn't changed; it was still 206-189-40 with the Dems ahead. As of today, the numbers show 205 Democrats leading; 201 Republicans ahead and 29 races too close to call. The Democrats 17 seat lead has been cut to 4.
If this trend stays, the Republicans will hold the House.
The Senate:
Most pollsters have seen a strong shift to the GOP since the Kavanaugh hearings. Right now, there are GOP leads in enough place to lock in a two vote gain. That still leaves five seats that are too close to call, meaning that there would be between 58 and 53 Republicans if the election were held today. Barring a major switch, the GOP will hold the Senate and with a bigger majority than they have currently.
There are a few harbingers of where things are going that are worth mentioning.:
The House:
We've been told since about a year ago that the Democrats will be taking back control of the House. It's the blue wave, the Trump disapproval numbers, the GOP tax cuts, the women's vote and all other manner of things that were going to lock in Democrat victory according to the media. But that hasn't happened. Here are some important figures from polling for House races summarized by Real Clear Politics.
As of a month ago, the projections based upon polling showed 206 Democrats ahead, 189 Republicans ahead and 40 toss up races. As of two weeks ago, the numbers hadn't changed; it was still 206-189-40 with the Dems ahead. As of today, the numbers show 205 Democrats leading; 201 Republicans ahead and 29 races too close to call. The Democrats 17 seat lead has been cut to 4.
If this trend stays, the Republicans will hold the House.
The Senate:
Most pollsters have seen a strong shift to the GOP since the Kavanaugh hearings. Right now, there are GOP leads in enough place to lock in a two vote gain. That still leaves five seats that are too close to call, meaning that there would be between 58 and 53 Republicans if the election were held today. Barring a major switch, the GOP will hold the Senate and with a bigger majority than they have currently.
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