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Saturday, October 30, 2010

It Just Keeps Getting Worse for the Democrats -- the coming Avalanche

I have been updating the numbers coming out from Real Clear Politics regarding the House races on a regular basis. In the last few days, there have been a large number of polls that have shifted the numbers once again. Accordint to RCP, Democrats have 171 seats that at least lean towards them and Republicans have 224 such seats leaving 40 toss up seats. 171 seats is the lowest the Democrats have gotten all year. Five weeks ago, they had 30 more, but their weaknesses keep appearing. If the Republicans win only half of the toss up seats, they will have a gain of 65 seats net. That truly understates the GOP strength, however. With the trends of recent weeks and with the enthusiasm gap between the parties, the more likely outcome is for the GOP to pick up three quarters of the toss ups and about a third of the seats that RCP lists as leaning to the Democrats. That gives the GOP a total of 263, a gain of 84 seats.

In the last week, whole states have shifted. For example, in Maine the governors race has moved solidly towards the GOP and every congressional seat has also shifted towards the GOP. there are still many seats with no public polls available. I have to wonder how many of these seats will turn out to flip to the GOP as well.

I have been calling this an avalanche. I think I need a word thata means something bigger.

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