Liberal Delusions

In the Daily Beast today, Peter Beinart has a piece on why Obama has a lock on victory in 2012. To put it mildly, it is a major howler. here is Beinart's conclusion:

"It’s hard to recognize it now, with the economy in the tank and Democrats running for cover, but take a step back and you can see that we’re still probably in the early stages of an era of Democratic dominance. It’s going to be a while before another Republican wins the White House, and when they do, I bet they have less in common with Sarah Palin than with Arnold [Schwarzenegger] himself."

You may ask why it is that Obama has the field locked up. fair question -- here are Beinart's reasons. Obama will not have a primary challenge (hear that Hillary!) and presidents do not lose if they have no re-election challenge. The economy will be better and obama will be judged not on how the economy is doing in 2012 but on whether or not it is better than it ws in 2008 when he ran the first time. Finally, the GOP will carry out their program and alienate all Hispanics and young people, stranding them in minority status for a generation.

To call this nonsense pompous BS is an understatement. No one knows how the primaries will play out. If Obama continues to sink in the polls, there will be Democrats who come out to challenge him. Beinart correctly points out that Obama will keep the votes of African Americans in any primary contest, but that will just not be enough. Indeed, if a president running for re-election loses a number of early races, he will be toast. So will the African American vote take the Iowa caucuses for Obama? How about in New Hampshire. Maybe Nevada will be different. these are three of the first four states to vote. None of them has and African American population of even 5%. For Obama to win these states he will need to take whites and Hispanics. If he fails, a victory in South Carolina will not save him. His candidacy will be fatally wounded. Hillary knows this, So does everyone else (except for Beinart).

Will the economy be better in 2012? Let's hope so, but will we be in our fourth year with unemployment above 8%? Will health insurance premiums be soaring by 20% per year as obamacare sends costs through the roof? will there be a feeling in the country that we are moving forward? wnd if that feeling exists will Obama get credit or will that go to the new Republican majorities in congress? No one knows the answers to these question; cetainly not Peter Beinart.

So we come to Beinart's final cannard: the GOP is doomed to minority status since it represents only old white folks. Maybe Beinart better open his eyes. There are enough minority candidates running for the GOP this year to make a real difference in appealing to Hispanics, Asians and even Blacks. Just imagine what happens if Hispanics shift by 10% away from Obama. After all, these same folks who voted for Obama seem pretty lukewarm towards the Democrats at the moment. A shift like that coupled with a shift among the white vote of a few points and Obama loses the election. Indeed, throw in the possibility that Obama gets only 90% of the black vote (his current approval rating) instead of the 96% he got in 2008. That change would essentially seal the doom of any Obama candidacy.

Let's be clear. I am not saying that Obama will surely lose in 2012. that will depend on many unknowns, particularly the identity and skill set of the Republican candidate. Nevertheless, it is certainly fair to say that Beinart's comments are ridiculous. He doesn't know what will happen -- all the rest is BS.