You have to Accentuate the Positive

Think back quickly and remember the top three highlights of the South Carolina primary. In my view they were 1) Gingrich putting down John King and CNN for starting a presidential debate with a question about his ex-wife; 2) Gingrich explaining to Juan Williams why calling Barack Obama the "Food Stamp President" has nothing to do with race but all to do with the failure of Obama's policies; and 3) Mitt Romney being unable clearly to answer simple questions about releasing his tax returns. Now think about the top three moments in the Florida primary. I think they were 1) Mitt Romney castigating Newt Gingrich as an "influence peddlar" responsible in part for the housing bubble due to working for Freddie Mac; 2) Mitt Romney continually criticizing Newt for whining; and 3) Gingrich calling Romney a liar in about fifty different ways. In other words, the highlights in South Carolina were either positive moments for conservatives (slamming the biased liberal media and explaining reality to a liberal trapped in a leftist mindset) or a self inflicted wound (Romney's taxes), while the highlights in Florida were relentlessly negative. Now consider the turnout in both states. In Florida, turnout was down about 10% compared to four years ago. In South Carolina, turnout was up about 35% compared to four years ago. These are valid comparisons since both primaries in 2008 were hotly contested just as they have been in 2012.

So what does this tell us? I believe it contains both a warning and an opportunity for the GOP. First the warning: go negative at your own peril. When the clash is one of ideas, people get involved and excited. The Gingrich frontal assault on the leftist media and the liberal mindset which sees racism in every disagreement caused more excitement among the Republican base than could ever have been believed. Finally, here was a major candidate who took on the liberals and set forth conservative views in a clear and concise way. No apologies, no kowtowing to the media elites, no rounding of the sharp corners. The base flocked to the polls. The negativity in Florida, in contrast, turned people off. A big chunk of the base just stayed home. If that happens in November, Obama will be a two term president. Now the opportunity: the GOP nominee, whoever it is, can bring new conservative voters to the polls with a clear, strong and unapologetic message that challenges the roots of Obama-thought and class warfare. Slogans will not be enough; there has to be substance.

In 2008, Obama won in part because he brought out millions of new voters excited to elected the first black president. That thrill is gone, and most of those voters have gone as well. In 2012, the GOP could also bring out millions of new voters if they present the opportunity to elect the first real converative president since Ronald Reagan. That person could even be Mitt Romney, but he is going to have to convince people of his sincerity first.