So the North Koreans launched their missile this morning (NK time). It went up for about a minute and then broke into pieces and fell into the Pacific. It was an embarrassment of major proportions for the leader of North Korea. He promised results and got nothing. Meanwhile the cost in lost prestige for his country was great.
The truth is that last night's launch had the same effect on American policy towards North Korea. President Obama's policy of engagement with the NK's also blew up shortly after takeoff. The failure is a major embarrassment for the USA. Obama promised results and got nothing except a black eye for the USA as the NK's treated him as a fool.
It will be instructive to see how Obama now handles the North Koreans. The State Department has already told the NK's that if they were to launch their missile, none of the food aid promised in February's breakthrough charade...err..agreement would be delivered. My guess is that team Obama is going to find a way to still deliver the aid in an effort to engage again with the NK's. In other words, I expect that the worst possible course of action will be taken by Washington.
My suggestion, however, is another course of action. America should immediately cancel any aid or other trade with the NK's. We also should get together with the South Koreans to install an anti missile system in the south. We should make clear that the anti-missile system is designed to defend against the NK missiles, but there should be some vagueness that will leave the impression that the new system could be used to shoot down future missiles launched for testing from the north. This is a high stakes strategy, but it would make clear to the NK's and, in particular, to the NK armed forces that the missile launch carried with it a steep price for North Korea. Since the NK's often behave irrationally, we may see them strike against some South Korean installation as they have so often in the past. This time, the southerners should be encouraged to respond rather than to just take it. The truth is that the NK's behave like crazy people, but they are not crazy. If they understand that there is a major cost for their crazy actions, they will not take them.
Ultimately, the NK's know that if there were a full, all out assault by them on the south, they would be destroyed. That is what has kept the peace in Korea for fifty plus years. The USA needs to increase the deterrent so as to bring the NK's to their senses.
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